US‑Iran talks under strain
U.S. and Iranian delegations met in Islamabad for high‑stakes talks even as violence continued and oil flows stayed constrained, leaving diplomacy fragile and outcomes uncertain. Observers note Tehran's internal divisions and clear sticking points that make any durable deal difficult while markets watch oil and shipping risks tied to the negotiations. (reuters.com) (apnews.com)
The United States and Iran sat down in Islamabad on Saturday, April 11, but the talks opened with the ceasefire already fraying: Iran was still choking traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, and Israel was still hitting targets in Lebanon. Vice President JD Vance led the American side, while Iran’s team was expected to be led by Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf. (apnews.com) (zawya.com) The truce is only two weeks old. President Donald Trump announced it on Tuesday, April 7, after warning that if no deal came together, the United States would hit Iran’s power plants and bridges. (usnews.com) (zawya.com) The biggest immediate fight is over the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway between Iran and Oman that normally handles about one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas trade. In the first 24 hours after the ceasefire, only one oil-products tanker and five dry-bulk ships passed through, down from roughly 140 ships a day before the war. (zawya.com) (usnews.com) That bottleneck is not a side issue. Reuters reported that Iran’s near-total blockade has caused the worst disruption to global energy supplies on record, and CNBC reported that Tehran wants to keep control of the strait and charge ships a fee to pass. (zawya.com) (cnbc.com) The second fight is Lebanon. Iran and Pakistan say the ceasefire was supposed to cover Lebanon, but the United States and Israel say it did not, which is why Israeli strikes kept going even as the Islamabad meeting approached. (zawya.com) (cnbc.com) That disagreement is not abstract. Israel said it struck 10 launchers in Lebanon on Friday after rocket fire toward northern Israel, and Hezbollah said it targeted military infrastructure in Haifa. (zawya.com) The third fight is Iran’s nuclear program. Iran arrived with a 10-point proposal that insists on keeping uranium enrichment, while Washington’s earlier 15-point plan demanded that enrichment stop and that Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium be removed. (usnews.com) (cnbc.com) Missiles are another hard wall. Reuters reported that Iran’s proposal does not address its missile arsenal, and Tehran has called those weapons non-negotiable even after weeks of war. (usnews.com) Inside Iran, the politics are split too. Bloomberg reported that some hardline factions want the war to continue, while others see the Islamabad talks as a chance to reset relations with Washington after the killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on February 28 and the rise of a more military-centered leadership. (bloomberg.com) That is why these talks look less like a peace conference and more like trying to renegotiate a contract while the building is still on fire. The United States wants shipping restored, nuclear limits tightened, and the fighting contained; Iran wants sanctions relief, reconstruction money, and terms that also protect Hezbollah and its other regional allies. (usnews.com) (cnbc.com)
