Grocery inflation cools — uneven
Grocery price growth cooled in March with food‑at‑home inflation below 2% for the first time since November 2025, but prices for meat, produce and coffee continued to rise. Coverage warned that rising energy and fertilizer costs could push prices higher again (fooddive.com) (foodnavigator-usa.com).
U.S. grocery inflation cooled again in March, with food-at-home prices up 1.9% from a year earlier and down 0.2% from February. (bls.gov) The Bureau of Labor Statistics said March was the first month since November 2025 that annual grocery inflation fell below 2%. Overall consumer inflation moved the other way: the all-items index rose 3.3% from a year earlier, and energy prices jumped 12.5%. (bls.gov) The slowdown was uneven inside the supermarket. Fruits and vegetables were up 4.0% from a year earlier, nonalcoholic beverages rose 4.7%, and the fruits and vegetables index also climbed 1.0% just in March. (bls.gov) Some categories that drove sticker shock late last year eased. The meats, poultry, fish, and eggs index fell 0.6% in March from February, and egg prices alone dropped 3.4% on the month. (bls.gov) That is a shift from December 2025, when grocery inflation ran at 2.4% and beef and veal prices were rising 16.4% from a year earlier while coffee was up nearly 20%. Those spikes helped push shoppers’ food bills higher even as broader inflation stayed lower than it is now. (fooddive.com) Federal forecasters still expect grocery prices to rise in 2026 as a whole. The Agriculture Department’s Economic Research Service said on March 25 that food-at-home prices are projected to increase 3.1% this year, while restaurant prices are projected to rise 3.9%. (ers.usda.gov) The same forecast shows why shoppers may keep seeing price increases in specific aisles. The Economic Research Service expects 2026 prices to rise 5.5% for beef and veal and 5.2% for nonalcoholic beverages, a category Food Dive said is being pushed in part by coffee. (ers.usda.gov) (fooddive.com) Fresh produce looks calmer in the government forecast than it did in March’s year-over-year reading. The Economic Research Service projects fresh vegetable prices to rise 1.4% in 2026 and fresh fruit prices by less than 1%, even after February posted large monthly increases for fresh vegetables. (ers.usda.gov) (fooddive.com) The next test comes with the April Consumer Price Index report due May 12. If energy costs stay elevated, the gap between slower overall grocery inflation and still-rising prices for meat, produce and coffee could narrow fast. (bls.gov)
