Emerging markets: IMF snapshot
IMF updates show emerging markets (ex‑China) averaging roughly a 4.5% fiscal deficit and about 58% debt‑to‑GDP, with India cited at roughly 85% and Brazil near 95%; IMF growth forecasts were cut to about 4% for EMs overall while India’s growth remains strong at 7.3% for 2025 and around 6.4% for 2026–27. (x.com) (x.com)
The International Monetary Fund’s April 2025 updates showed a split across emerging markets: growth forecasts were cut, but debt and deficits were already elevated. (imf.org) In its April 2025 World Economic Outlook, the IMF said growth in emerging market and developing economies would slow to 3.7% in 2025 and 3.9% in 2026 after new trade measures and higher policy uncertainty. The report said countries hit hardest by recent tariffs, including China, faced the biggest downgrades. (imf.org) That matters because the IMF’s April 2025 Fiscal Monitor said public finances were already under strain before the latest growth cuts. The fund said tariffs, market volatility, higher defense spending and tighter aid conditions were pushing debt projections higher. (imf.org) A fiscal deficit is the gap between what a government spends and what it collects in a year, while debt-to-gross domestic product compares the accumulated stock of borrowing with the size of the economy. The IMF said global fiscal deficits averaged 5.0% of gross domestic product in 2024 and global public debt reached 92.3% of gross domestic product. (imf.org) For emerging markets, the pressure comes from both slower growth and tighter financing conditions. The IMF said widening spreads in emerging-market bonds and more volatile global markets were increasing the risk that borrowing costs stay high even as growth softens. (imf.org) India stands out in the IMF’s country outlook because its medium-term growth remained stronger than the broader emerging-market aggregate. The IMF’s 2025 Article IV review said India’s financial sector, corporate balance sheets and digital public infrastructure supported sustained medium-term growth, while warning that regional conflict and oil-price shocks could still hit its fiscal position. (imf.org) The IMF’s databases are the source for the country-by-country debt, deficit and growth figures cited in market snapshots, including comparisons across India, Brazil and other large emerging economies. The fund said the April 2025 World Economic Outlook database and Fiscal Monitor database were built from information available through mid-April 2025. (imf.org) (data.imf.org) The IMF’s bottom line in April 2025 was that emerging markets entered a weaker growth phase without much fiscal room to absorb another shock. Its advice was gradual deficit reduction, medium-term fiscal frameworks and reforms to spending programs such as energy subsidies and pensions. (imf.org)
