Lending recovery signal
Greystone’s Q1 outlook sees a lending recovery and a selective multifamily rebound, suggesting the market is shifting from survival mode to selective opportunity. That means deals will favor buyers who underwrite conservatively and can act quickly when lenders reopen. (greystone.com)
Commercial real estate owners spent 2024 and 2025 trying to survive loans they could not refinance at old rates. Greystone now says 2026 looks more like a reopening, with Mortgage Bankers Association data pointing to $805.5 billion of commercial mortgage originations this year, up from $633.7 billion in 2025. (greystone.com) (mba.org) That does not mean money is suddenly cheap again. It means more lenders are willing to make loans, but they are reopening with stricter screening, lower leverage, and a strong preference for properties with stable rent rolls and near-term cash flow. (greystone.com) (districtcapital.com) The center of this story is multifamily housing, which is the apartment sector. Mortgage Bankers Association expects multifamily originations to rise 21 percent to about $399 billion in 2026, even after two years when new supply and high borrowing costs squeezed owners. (mba.org) (greystone.com) The rebound is selective because the apartment market is split in two. Sun Belt metros that added large numbers of new units are still dealing with softer rents and higher concessions, while older buildings in supply-constrained markets have held up better because fewer new competitors opened nearby. (greystone.com) Distress has not disappeared while this reopening is happening. Trepp reported the overall commercial mortgage-backed securities delinquency rate at 7.14 percent in February 2026, and Multifamily Dive reported that the all-property rate rose back to 7.55 percent in March while multifamily special servicing climbed to 8.75 percent. (trepp.com) (multifamilydive.com) That combination is why buyers are watching loan maturities so closely. When an owner has a 2021 loan priced for near-zero short-term rates and has to refinance in 2026 at a much higher coupon, the property may still be occupied but the old capital stack no longer fits. (greystone.com) (parkviewfinancial.com) Greystone’s point is that this is no longer a market where every asset is frozen and nobody can get financed. It is a market where a lender may say yes to a well-leased apartment building with realistic expenses on Monday and say no to a shaky value-add plan in an overbuilt submarket on Tuesday. (greystone.com) That changes who has the edge in deals. Buyers with lower leverage, more equity, and underwriting that assumes slower rent growth can move when a bank, debt fund, or agency lender finally opens a window, while buyers still using 2021 assumptions will miss it. (greystone.com) (districtcapital.com) It also explains why the word “recovery” is showing up next to “opportunity” instead of “boom.” A boom means rising prices pull almost everything up at once, but a selective recovery means the spread between good assets and bad assets gets wider because lenders, buyers, and sellers are all repricing risk property by property. (greystone.com)
