Tariff uncertainty rises

The Trump administration is escalating tariff threats against China even as its court-ordered refund system for earlier emergency tariffs is only beginning to open. (cnbc.com) President Donald Trump said April 13 that he could impose a 50% tariff on China over reported arms shipments to Iran. A separate April 8 threat said any country supplying weapons to Iran would face a 50% tariff on all goods sold to the United States. (cnbc.com, cnbc.com) At the same time, U.S. Customs and Border Protection said the first phase of its International Emergency Economic Powers Act refund portal will go live on April 20 inside the Automated Commercial Environment. Importers and customs brokers will have to upload Comma-Separated Values files through the portal, and the agency said Phase 1 covers only certain unliquidated entries and some entries within 80 days of liquidation. (cbp.gov, taxnews.ey.com) That refund process exists because the Supreme Court struck down the earlier International Emergency Economic Powers Act tariffs in February, and the Court of International Trade has been supervising how refunds get paid back. Trade lawyers tracking the case said the first phase is limited and does not yet resolve claims tied to finally liquidated entries. (budgetlab.yale.edu, thompsonhinesmartrade.com) The court record shows why many companies will not get money quickly. In an April 1 order, Senior Judge Richard Eaton said Customs was on track for the April 20 deadline, but a declaration in the case said Phase 1 would cover about 63% of entries that paid or deposited the emergency duties. (thompsonhinesmartrade.com) Customs said each declaration can include as many as 9,999 entries, and refunds will be consolidated by importer or by a designated refund recipient rather than handled one shipment at a time. The agency also said filers cannot use the Automated Broker Interface for these claims and must use the web portal instead. (cbp.gov) The legal pressure is widening beyond the refund cases. A coalition of 24 mostly Democratic-led states and some small businesses asked the Court of International Trade to throw out Trump’s newer 10% global tariff, and judges pressed government lawyers on that policy at an April 10 hearing. (politico.com, nytimes.com) Price data are also moving in the same direction as the tariff fight. Federal Reserve researchers said tariffs implemented through November 2025 raised core goods Personal Consumption Expenditures prices by 3.1% through February 2026, while Yale’s Budget Lab said core goods prices were up 1.9% year over year as of January 2026 and estimated about $165 billion in unlawful duties may ultimately be refunded. (federalreserve.gov, budgetlab.yale.edu) So the trade picture on April 14 looks split in two directions at once: new tariff threats are getting bigger, while the system for unwinding old tariffs is opening in narrow stages starting April 20. The next concrete test is whether Customs can process the first wave of claims on schedule and whether the trade court lets the newer tariffs stand. (cbp.gov, thompsonhinesmartrade.com, nytimes.com)