China growth trimmed

China’s 2026 growth outlook is softening as export momentum fades and Beijing leans harder on technology to keep expansion going. (imf.org) (cnbc.com) The International Monetary Fund said on February 18 that China’s economy grew 5 percent in 2025 and is projected to slow to 4.5 percent in 2026. The fund said private domestic demand stayed weak, headline inflation averaged 0 percent in 2025, and deflationary pressure is still present. (imf.org) Trade had been doing much of the work. China’s exports rose 21.8 percent in the combined January-February period, then slowed to 2.5 percent year over year in March, while imports jumped 27.8 percent, the fastest pace since November 2021, according to customs data cited by CNBC. (cnbc.com) (english.customs.gov.cn) The March slowdown came as the Iran war pushed up energy costs and darkened the global demand outlook. China’s customs vice minister, Wang Jun, said on April 14 that oil prices had seen “fierce fluctuation” and the trade environment had become “complex and severe.” (cnbc.com) That matters because China entered 2026 unusually dependent on overseas demand. The International Monetary Fund said low inflation and a weaker real exchange rate helped lift exports and pushed the current account balance to an estimated 3.3 percent of gross domestic product in 2025. (imf.org) The same International Monetary Fund report said exports may be less able to drive growth from here, while a deeper property slump and high debt remain domestic risks. Its board said shifting toward consumption-led growth should be the “overarching priority” and welcomed the Fifteenth Five-Year Plan’s focus on boosting consumption. (imf.org) Beijing’s new Five-Year Plan, approved on March 12 for 2026 through 2030, puts manufacturing and innovation at the center of that next phase. The state news agency Xinhua said the plan sets goals across innovation, green transition, livelihoods and security, with “building up national strengths” and manufacturing in the spotlight. (english.www.gov.cn) That emphasis follows a year when electronics and industrial inputs carried China’s export machine. The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission said on February 4 that integrated circuit exports rose 26.8 percent in 2025 and accounted for roughly one-fifth of the $196 billion increase in overall exports. (uscc.gov) China is still producing at scale. Xinhua said the country’s manufacturing value added has ranked first in the world for 16 straight years, and CNBC reported that analysts see China as better insulated than some export peers because of the size and efficiency of its factory base and oil stockpiles covering more than 120 days of net imports. (english.www.gov.cn) (cnbc.com) The near-term test is whether Beijing can replace a trade-led burst with steadier demand at home while keeping its technology push on track. For now, the numbers show a country still growing, but with less room for exports to cover its weak spots. (imf.org) (cnbc.com)