IMF keeps South Korea growth 1.9%
- The International Monetary Fund kept South Korea’s 2026 growth forecast at 1.9% on April 14, even as it cut the global outlook. - The fund also raised its 2026 inflation forecast for South Korea to 2.5%, while the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development sits lower on growth at 1.7%. - OECD data now points to Korea’s potential growth rate sliding to 1.52% in late 2027. (en.yna.co.kr)
The International Monetary Fund left South Korea’s 2026 growth forecast at 1.9% on April 14, even as it lowered its global forecast. (en.yna.co.kr) (imf.org) The IMF’s April World Economic Outlook kept Korea unchanged from January, while cutting global growth by 0.2 percentage point to 3.1%, according to South Korea’s finance ministry. (en.yna.co.kr) The same IMF update raised South Korea’s 2026 inflation forecast to 2.5% from its earlier estimate, citing higher oil prices and supply disruptions tied to the Middle East conflict. (en.yna.co.kr) South Korea’s government said strong exports and a supplementary budget helped offset the shock. The IMF’s assumptions also rest on the conflict easing within weeks and energy exports normalizing from mid-2026. (en.yna.co.kr) (oecd.org) That leaves a split between short-term and medium-term readings of the economy. The IMF is holding to 1.9% for 2026, but the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development cut its 2026 Korea forecast to 1.7% in March from 2.1% in December. (en.yna.co.kr) (oecd.org) A separate OECD measure is darker still. On April 26, Yonhap reported OECD data showing South Korea’s potential growth rate falling to 1.52% in the fourth quarter of 2027, down from 1.92% in 2025 and an estimated 1.71% in 2026. (en.yna.co.kr) Potential growth is the economy’s speed limit: the pace it can sustain using labor and capital without stoking inflation. OECD data shows Korea’s estimate has been falling since 2012, when it stood at 3.63%. (en.yna.co.kr) The Bank of Korea has also turned more cautious. Yonhap said the central bank warned last week that growth momentum had slowed more than expected and that 2026 growth will likely come in below its previous forecast. (en.yna.co.kr) So the headline forecast has not changed, but the cushion under it looks thinner. South Korea still has a 1.9% IMF number for 2026; it also has higher inflation, weaker OECD projections and a falling estimate of long-run capacity. (en.yna.co.kr 1) (en.yna.co.kr 2)
