Nexta says Russia lost influence in Syria

Nexta, the Belarus-based outlet, said in an X post on September 8 that Russia had lost influence in Syria, failed to shield former Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro and was now confronting fresh risks around Iran. The post bundled three separate setbacks into one argument about Moscow’s reduced ability to protect or direct partners beyond the former Soviet Union. Nexta said pro-war Russian bloggers had described the moment as “the end of an era.” The X post itself was not fully viewable through web access, but the account, date and core claims were reflected in the supplied briefing and align with reporting and analysis published earlier this year. ### Why did Nexta tie Syria, Venezuela and Iran together? Meduza reported on January 14 that Russian elites were questioning how President Vladimir Putin’s inaction over Venezuela and Iran fit with the Kremlin’s long-promoted idea of a “multipolar world.” Meduza said sources close to the Kremlin described unease after the U.S. capture of Maduro and amid protests in Iran, because both countries had been treated in Moscow as major allies. (meduza.io) DFRLab wrote on January 10 that Russia’s inability to protect Maduro fit a broader pattern in which Moscow’s capacity to materially support allies had diminished in Syria, Iran and Venezuela. The group said Kremlin-linked influence networks responded by pushing contradictory narratives online after Maduro’s capture. (meduza.io) ### What changed in Syria? Syria’s post-Assad order has already reduced Russia’s room for maneuver. Reuters, in an August 4 report carried by U.S. News, said Washington was targeting “the economic network that allows Russia to preserve influence after losing political ground in Syria,” citing U.S. envoy Thomas Barrack’s adviser Saban. (dfrlab.org) The New Arab reported in August that Syria and Russia had spent 18 months negotiating Moscow’s military presence after Bashar al-Assad’s fall in December 2024, and that any remaining access was narrower and more dependent on Syrian consent. Al Jazeera reported on August 10 that the post-Assad government announced a memorandum covering Russia’s Hmeimim air base and Tartus naval base. Those reports indicate Russia retained some footholds, but on terms different from those it held under Assad. (usnews.com) ### What happened with Maduro? RFE/RL reported on January 14 that U.S. forces captured Maduro on January 3 and that Moscow’s near-term ability to exert influence in Venezuela was limited. The outlet said Putin had made no public comment for 10 days after the operation. Meduza reported that some Russian officials were shaken because Venezuela was “supposed to be our ally” and yet, as one source put it, “the U.S. went ahead, and nobody helped.” DFRLab described the episode as one in which Russia was unable to protect a close Latin American ally and then shifted to information operations. (newarab.com) ### Why does Iran appear in the same argument? (rferl.org) Iran appeared in the same frame because Meduza said Russian elites were also unsettled by protests there and by Washington’s threats to intervene. The outlet said officials saw both Iran and Venezuela as central to Moscow’s network of partners. DFRLab made the same connection more explicitly, saying Russia’s reduced ability to support allies had shown up across Syria, Iran and Venezuela. (meduza.io) That does not mean Russia has lost all leverage in those places; RFE/RL said Moscow still had relationships and commercial links in Venezuela, and reporting on Syria shows Russia has preserved some access there. But the common thread in the cited reporting is narrower influence and fewer visible tools of protection. ### What, exactly, can be verified from the September 8 post? The September 8 Nexta post can be verified at the account and link level from the supplied material, and its broad framing matches earlier reporting on Russia’s setbacks with Maduro, Syria and Iran. The specific quotation that pro-war Russian bloggers called this “the end of an era” comes from the briefing tied to the post and could not be independently retrieved from the X page through web access. (rferl.org) September 8 is the date of the Nexta post, and the next step for readers is the thread on Nexta’s X account, where the outlet said it had set out its Syria, Venezuela and Iran claims. (x.com)