Kalshi, Polymarket continue trades after shooting
- Kalshi and Polymarket kept trading markets open Saturday night after gunfire disrupted the White House Correspondents’ Association dinner and President Donald Trump was rushed from the Washington Hilton ballroom. - On Polymarket, more than $13.2 million had traded on whether Trump would be out by April 30, while Kalshi’s broader “Donald Trump out as President?” market had handled $8.54 million. - The episode turned attention to contract wording, with Kalshi’s death carveout and Polymarket’s reporting-based rules shaping payouts as much as event risk itself. (bookies.com)
Kalshi and Polymarket kept taking trades on President Donald Trump’s future after gunfire halted the White House Correspondents’ Association dinner in Washington on April 25. (bookies.com) (abcnews.com) ABC News reported that an armed man charged a security checkpoint at the Washington Hilton, fired at a Secret Service agent, and was taken into custody after Trump and other officials were rushed from the stage. (abcnews.com) The Associated Press and Reuters reported Sunday that Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche said investigators believe the accused gunman was targeting Trump administration officials, likely including the president. (apnews.com) (yahoo.com) While that unfolded, Bookies.com reported Polymarket’s “Trump out as President by April 30?” market had handled $13,216,013, with “Yes” priced at 0.3%, and its “before 2027” market showed 17% odds with $7,462,185 traded. (bookies.com) Bookies.com also reported Kalshi’s “Donald Trump out as President?” market had traded $8,541,896 and priced Trump leaving office before 2027 at 14% on Saturday night. (bookies.com) The biggest difference was not the headline odds but the rulebook. Kalshi’s market rules say if Trump leaves office solely because of death, the contract does not simply resolve “Yes”; the exchange can pay out based on the last traded price before death. (kalshi.com) (bookies.com) Polymarket’s corresponding market uses “a consensus of credible reporting” as its resolution source and says a sustained Twenty-Fifth Amendment removal would count for “Yes.” Search results for the market page did not show a comparable death carveout. (polymarket.com) (bookies.com) A separate set of Polymarket contracts on Trump’s dinner speech showed how literal those rules can be. Phemex reported that 32 word-based contracts with about $278,000 in total volume all settled “No” because Trump never delivered the speech after the evacuation. (phemex.com) That left traders with two lessons from the same night: the political event itself drove prices, and the contract language determined what “winning” actually meant once the event broke off. (bookies.com) (phemex.com)
