Oil tops $100; IMF warns
Global oil prices have surged past $100 a barrel as the Middle East conflict escalates, adding fresh inflationary pressure. The IMF says the Iran war is delivering a 'serious disruption' and an 'asymmetric shock' that’s dimming growth outlooks, while bond markets are flashing recession signals as investors price in more rate cuts. (markets.financialcontent.com) (reuters.com)
Brent crude climbed to about $106.14 a barrel on March 31, 2026, representing roughly a 36.5% gain month-to-date. (tradingeconomics.com) The IMF’s March 30 blog called the conflict a “global, yet asymmetric” shock and warned that “all roads lead to higher prices and slower growth.” (imf.org) A Thomson Reuters Institute analysis says insurer withdrawals of war‑risk cover and risk perceptions have effectively closed key routes, choking roughly one‑fifth of global petroleum flows through the Strait of Hormuz. (thomsonreuters.com) Market‑implied Fed funds probabilities show investors pricing material easing: RateProbability’s snapshot lists an implied post‑meeting rate of about 3.29% for the June 17, 2026 meeting — a reading consistent with roughly a 55% chance of a cut by then. (rateprobability.com) U.S. Treasury yields were trading with the 10‑year around 4.44% and the 2‑year near 3.88% on March 30, 2026, according to aggregated market yield tables. (sofrrate.com) Brent hit intra‑session highs above $116.80 and benchmark contracts settled in double digits this week, while U.S. crude futures also climbed back above the $100 mark in trading cited by market reports. (businesstimes.com.sg)
