Global car market set to double by 2036

A forecast projects the global car market to top $5.9 trillion by 2036 as electrification, software, and SUV demand reshape value chains — a long‑horizon signal that lenders must evolve product mixes to finance software‑driven and subscription‑style vehicles. The projection underscores structural change in vehicle collateral and revenue streams. (openpr.com)

The global car market generated roughly $2.9 trillion in 2024, according to the International Energy Agency’s industry overview. (iea.org) Market research firms place similar baselines and project rapid growth — GMI Insights reported a $2.4 trillion cars market in 2024 and forecast a 7.8% CAGR through 2034. (gminsights.com) Consultancies and incumbents are pricing software and services into vehicle valuations: Accenture projects digitally enabled vehicle services could scale to about $3.5 trillion by 2040. (accenture.com) OEM monetisation plans already show material scale, with GM citing more than $5 billion in revenue from OnStar and Super Cruise subscriptions in 2025. (insideevs.com) Used-vehicle and residual-value volatility is concentrated risk for lenders: Manheim’s index showed used-vehicle values down roughly 7% year-over-year and about 21% from the December 2021 peak. (prnewswire.com) Data vendors report EVs are losing value faster than ICE peers, with Black Book flagging lower EV retention and Cox Automotive reporting a 12.4% drop in wholesale used-EV prices in a recent period. (blackbook.com) The CFPB notes roughly 80% of new vehicle purchases are financed and auto loans exceeded $1.5 trillion in outstanding balances as of Q3 2023, concentrating collateral exposure inside lender portfolios. (files.consumerfinance.gov) Credit-behaviour and securitisation outcomes are diverging from collateral trends: a Federal Reserve study found EV borrowers exhibited about 29% lower default rates than ICE borrowers in its analysis. (federalreserve.gov) Fitch Ratings reports that, despite EV residual pressures, auto ABS performance has broadly remained within rating-case expectations, though deals with high EV concentrations face heightened RV risk. (fitchratings.com) Wholesale and floorplan liquidity is shifting toward digital and bespoke programs as vehicle mix changes: Ally and other floorplan providers continue to expand wholesale financing and dealer services to manage inventory risk. (ally.com) Santander’s scaled partnership with AutoFi and recent dealer-facing platforms show lenders are embedding digital retailing and underwriting workflows to shorten turn times and control floorplan exposure. (businesswire.com) OEM mobility franchises and equipment lessors are pairing finance with services and charging ecosystems — Stellantis’ Free2Move now offers subscriptions, rentals and charging products as bundled revenue lines. (stellantis.com) Solifi has moved to address those asset and revenue-model shifts: it acquired Leasepath on July 2, 2025 to strengthen mid‑market equipment and lease management capabilities and in March 2026 launched Document Intelligence to cut document verification time by up to 70% for auto and equipment lenders. (magazine.factoring.org) Public customer transitions demonstrate platform impact on origination and ledger consolidation: Access Capital upgraded to Solifi’s ABL SaaS in September 2023 to centralise borrower management and AR ledgering for its asset‑based lending business. (sfnet.com) Those vendor moves mirror market needs identified by the forecast — rising software and subscription revenue, SUV and EV inventory cycles, and shifting collateral profiles that require faster origination, tighter dealer/floorplan controls and ledgered revenue tracking. (accenture.com)

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