China export slowdown

China’s export boom lost speed in March, with outbound shipments rising just 2.5% from a year earlier after a 21.8% jump in January and February. (english.customs.gov.cn) China’s General Administration of Customs said March exports totaled $321.0 billion, while imports climbed 27.8% to $269.9 billion and cut the monthly trade surplus to $51.1 billion. (english.customs.gov.cn) The sharpest bilateral hit came from the United States. China’s March exports to the United States fell 26.5% from a year earlier to $29.4 billion, while total two-way trade with the United States dropped 16.6%. (english.customs.gov.cn) Other markets still grew, which kept overall exports positive. March shipments rose 8.6% to the European Union, 6.9% to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, 19.6% to South Korea and 35.2% to Taiwan, according to customs data compiled by Trading Economics. (tradingeconomics.com) The timing matters because China opened 2026 leaning again on trade. CNBC said net exports accounted for about one-third of China’s economy last year, leaving growth exposed when overseas demand softens. (cnbc.com) Economists had expected a cooler month, but not this cool. A Reuters poll before the release had forecast March export growth of 8.6% and a narrower trade surplus of about $108 billion after January and February’s combined $214 billion. (money.usnews.com) The new drag is the Iran war’s effect on oil, shipping and confidence. Reuters reported that economists who had been betting an artificial-intelligence hardware cycle would keep Chinese exports humming now say the Middle East conflict has raised energy costs and weakened demand. (money.usnews.com) Chinese customs vice minister Wang Jun said on Tuesday that global oil prices had swung violently and created a “complex and severe” trade environment, according to CNBC’s report from Beijing. (cnbc.com) The import surge does not necessarily point to a stronger Chinese consumer. The South China Morning Post reported on April 13 that economists see recent price gains as commodity-driven, while rising government bond prices and weak equities signal doubts about durable domestic reflation. (scmp.com) That leaves Beijing with a narrower cushion than the headline export number suggests. March still showed growth, but the mix of weaker United States shipments, costlier energy and import-led pressure on the trade balance points to a tougher second quarter. (english.customs.gov.cn)