Trade and tariff uncertainty

India and the United States are back at the table, but the tariff math under the deal they sketched in February is no longer settled. (cnbctv18.com) India’s commerce secretary, Rajesh Agrawal, said an Indian team will be in Washington from April 20 to April 22 to continue talks on a bilateral trade agreement. CNBC-TV18 reported on April 16 that former commerce secretary Anup Wadhawan now sees this round as preliminary because the earlier tariff assumptions have changed. (moneycontrol.com, cnbctv18.com) That shift traces back to a February U.S. Supreme Court ruling that knocked out the legal basis for earlier International Emergency Economic Powers Act tariffs, and to a new U.S. refund system that Customs and Border Protection says will open on April 20. Reuters reported the system, called CAPE, is meant to process refunds on $166 billion in tariffs paid by importers. (reason.com, money.usnews.com) In plain terms, the old tariff schedule is being unwound while negotiators are still trying to write a new one. Wadhawan told CNBC-TV18 that “you can't negotiate 18% when you are actually facing 15% under U.S. law today,” a reference to the gap between the February framework and the tariff rate now in force. (cnbctv18.com) The February framework had looked more fixed. A White House fact sheet said the United States would lower its reciprocal tariff on India from 25% to 18% on select goods, while India would cut or remove tariffs on U.S. industrial goods and a wide range of farm products. (whitehouse.gov) Auto and truck parts sit near the center of the uncertainty. Business Standard reported in February that India sends about $6.5 billion in auto components to the U.S., and about half of that trade falls under Section 232 national-security tariffs that still carried a 25% duty. (business-standard.com) The same report said the February framework promised India preferential tariff-rate quotas for automotive parts, but left open whether the 18% rate would apply only to reciprocal tariffs or also to Section 232 items. The Automotive Component Manufacturers Association of India said the framework pointed to deeper supply-chain alignment, while analysts said the language still needed operational detail. (business-standard.com) Indian officials and former negotiators are also tying trade to wider pressure points. Abhijit Das told CNBC-TV18 that oil-related restrictions and fresh tariff actions are giving Washington “another pressure point,” while Wadhawan said India recognizes United Nations sanctions, not unilateral sanctions tied to Russian and Iranian oil. (cnbctv18.com) The refund plan adds another moving part for companies that already paid the old duties. Customs lawyers told CBS News that payouts will not be automatic for every importer, and a Hogan Lovells note said CAPE’s first phase is limited to unliquidated entries and entries within 80 days of liquidation. (cbsnews.com, hoganlovells.com) So the talks opening in Washington on April 20 start with two questions still unresolved at the same time: what tariff schedule survives in U.S. law, and what tariff schedule India is willing to lock into a deal. (moneycontrol.com, cnbctv18.com)