Trump Touts Economy at State of the Union
At the State of the Union, President Trump took a victory lap on the economy, highlighting low gas prices, a booming stock market, and cooling inflation. He credited his administration's tariffs for strengthening the economy, arguing they succeeded despite widespread predictions of failure.
During the February 24, 2026, State of the Union address, President Trump pointed to an inflation rate of 1.7% in the last quarter of 2025 as a key achievement. The year-over-year inflation rate for January 2026 was 2.4%, down from a peak of around 9% in the summer of 2022. The administration's tariff strategy is currently under review by the Supreme Court, which is expected to rule in early 2026 on the legality of using the International Emergency Economic Powers Act for broad tariff imposition. These tariffs have generated significant revenue but have also been projected by some economists to reduce long-run GDP and wages. Economists estimate that about 50-60% of the cost of these tariffs is being passed on to consumers, creating uncertainty in the inflation outlook. While some forecasts predict the current tariff regime could raise inflation, others anticipate the impact will fade, with core inflation falling to 2.2% by the end of 2026. The broader U.S. economic outlook has been improving, with forecasters reducing the probability of a recession from 45% in mid-2025 to around 20-30% in early 2026. Consensus estimates for GDP growth in the first half of 2026 are around 2.7%. Oregon's economy, however, is lagging the national trend. The state's unemployment rate rose to 5% in 2025, and it lost 18,000 nonfarm jobs between August 2024 and August 2025. A potential Supreme Court ruling against the administration's tariffs could deliver a tax cut of an estimated $2-3 billion for Oregon, according to the state's economist. The state's job trends have been particularly concerning in the private sector, with manufacturing alone losing over 5,000 jobs in the past year.
