China: growth, weak housing
China reported 5% GDP growth in the first quarter, beating expectations and signalling some near-term economic resilience. At the same time new‑home prices kept falling in March and analysts flagged an 11.2% property slump, a worry because real estate and infrastructure still account for nearly a third of demand and households hold about 70% of their wealth in housing. (nbcnews.com, investing.com, invezz.com, brookings.edu)
China’s economy grew 5% in the first quarter, but the country’s housing slump kept deepening in March. (reuters.com) The National Bureau of Statistics reported on April 16 that gross domestic product rose 5.0% from a year earlier in January-through-March, up from 4.5% in the fourth quarter of 2025 and above the 4.8% forecast in a Reuters poll. (reuters.com) March data pointed in two directions at once: retail sales rose 5.9% from a year earlier, industrial output increased 7.7%, and new-home prices across 70 cities fell 3.4%, the steepest annual drop since May 2025. (cnbc.com, tradingeconomics.com) Housing carries unusual weight in China because real estate and infrastructure account for nearly one-third of economic demand, while Chinese households keep about 70% of their wealth in homes. (brookings.edu) That mix means falling prices hit both construction activity and consumer spending: when apartments lose value, local governments, developers, and households all feel it at the same time. (brookings.edu, imf.org) The official housing survey showed some stabilization in top-tier cities even as the national picture stayed weak. New-home prices rose month over month in 14 of 70 cities in March, up from 10 in February, and first-tier cities including Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen posted gains or held flat. (english.scio.gov.cn) Outside those biggest markets, the downturn has been harder to shake. Anadolu, citing the same National Bureau of Statistics release, reported that new and existing home prices still fell in most of China’s 70 large and medium-sized cities in March. (aa.com.tr) Economists told Reuters the first-quarter growth figure was helped by a burst of exports before the Iran war raised energy costs and darkened the outlook for overseas demand. China’s statistics bureau said the external environment had become “complex and volatile.” (reuters.com) Beijing has rolled out mortgage easing, lower down-payment requirements, and support for unfinished projects over the past two years, but Brookings said the property sector is now in its sixth year of adjustment. (brookings.edu, imf.org) For now, China’s headline growth target still looks reachable on paper; the harder test is whether sales, prices, and household confidence in housing stop sliding in the months after March. (reuters.com, brookings.edu)
