Pakistan scrambles to save ceasefire

Pakistan’s problem right now is simple — the ceasefire it helped broker between Washington and Tehran is wobbling, and its own credibility is getting dragged into the fight. On May 12, Islamabad pushed back hard against claims that it had sheltered Iranian military aircraft at Nur Khan air base near Rawalpindi. (aljazeera.com) That came just hours after Donald Trump said the April 8 ceasefire was on “massive life support” and trashed Iran’s latest proposal. So this is not just about one news-cycle accusation. (aljazeera.com) It is about whether Pakistan still looks like a neutral go-between, or whether both sides start treating it as part of the problem. ### What actually blew up this week? A CBS report said Iran had moved several military aircraft, including an RC-130 reconnaissance plane, to Pakistan’s Nur Khan base after the ceasefire. Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry called that “misleading and sensationalised” and said the planes were tied to diplomatic logistics around U.S.-Iran talks in Islamabad on April 11. Pakistan also said American aircraft used the same base during that process. (aljazeera.com) ### Why does that accusation matter so much? Because mediation only works if both sides think the intermediary is passing messages cleanly. The same Al Jazeera report says some Trump officials now suspect Pakistan has been presenting Iran’s position too softly in Washington and not pressing Trump’s anger forcefully enough back toward Tehran. (aljazeera.com) Even if that suspicion is wrong, it weakens Pakistan’s leverage. ### How did Pakistan get this role? Pakistan became central during the war because it could talk to everyone who mattered. It had working lines to Tehran, longstanding security ties with Saudi Arabia, and a revived channel to Trump after 2025. When the ceasefire was announced on April 8, both Trump and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi publicly credited Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and army chief Asim Munir for helping make it happen. (aljazeera.com) ### Why was the ceasefire always fragile? Because it was never a full settlement. Even on day one, the two sides described different terms — especially on the Strait of Hormuz, uranium enrichment, and what exactly Iran had put on the table. That is the catch with many ceasefires: they stop immediate violence first, then leave the hard political argument sitting there, still loaded. (aljazeera.com) ### Where do India, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Türkiye come in? Pakistan never mediated alone. Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Türkiye have already been meeting repeatedly with Pakistan since March, and that coordination is starting to look more institutional than improvised. The first ministerial was in Riyadh on March 19, then Islamabad on March 29, then Antalya on April 18. Now another channel is opening through India, with Araghchi expected in New Delhi for the BRICS foreign ministers’ meeting on May 14-15. (aljazeera.com) ### Is Pakistan losing control of the process? Maybe “control” is the wrong word — but it is clearly losing exclusivity. At the start, Pakistan’s value was that it was the indispensable backchannel. Now the diplomacy is spreading into a broader regional framework. (aljazeera.com) That can help keep talks alive, but it also means Islamabad no longer gets to define the lane by itself. ### Why does the wider region care so much? Because the war has hit shipping, energy, and border security all at once. Pakistan, Egypt, and Türkiye are especially exposed to disruptions around Hormuz, and both Saudi Arabia and Türkiye were directly attacked during the conflict. For Pakistan, there is also the border question — instability in Iran can spill into Balochistan fast. (aljazeera.com) ### So what is Pakistan trying to do now? Basically, buy time and defend its neutrality. Islamabad wants the allegation about Iranian aircraft contained, the April ceasefire preserved, and the diplomatic track moved into a format where no one actor can kill it overnight. But if Trump keeps escalating publicly and Tehran keeps hardening its demands, Pakistan may end up remembered less as the broker that ended a war than as the broker that could only pause one. (iiss.org) (aljazeera.com 1) (aljazeera.com 2)