Hormuz & Red Sea chokehold
The Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea are effectively closed to commercial shipping — 21 attacks have been confirmed and about 170 containerships are trapped in the Persian Gulf, forcing major reroutes and global congestion. That disruption is tightening container and staple‑goods supply chains and raising lead times and freight costs for Caribbean imports. (maritimegateway.com) (edition.cnn.com)
Analysts estimate roughly 450,000 TEUs of cargo are aboard containerships currently stranded inside the Persian Gulf, creating a concentrated backlog of Asia–Middle East capacity. (maritimegateway.com) Major container lines — including Maersk, MSC, CMA CGM, Hapag‑Lloyd, COSCO and ONE — have suspended bookings for Middle East routings, paused Trans‑Suez sailings or rerouted services to avoid the Red Sea/Hormuz corridor. (bloomberg.com) Rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope adds roughly 11,000 nautical miles and about 10–14 days to Asia–Europe voyages, materially increasing fuel burn and per‑voyage operating costs. (container-news.com) Insurance and protection costs have surged: market reports show war‑risk premium quotes reaching levels that can total double‑digit millions of dollars on high‑risk voyages, and some estimates put special surcharges at about 1% of vessel value on affected routes. (lloydslist.com) Several P&I clubs and commercial insurers have issued cancellations or restrictions for Gulf transits and are offering buy‑backs or additional premiums, removing routine cover for ships operating in Iranian and nearby waters. (seaemploy.com) Vessel diversion has driven a 112% increase in ships calling Cape Town as carriers bypass the Red Sea, while Caribbean transshipment hubs are already under strain — Kingston has been managing operational bottlenecks with improvements expected by Q1 2026 and Dominican Republic ports are reporting multi‑day delays at key terminals. (thestar.co.za) The U.S. Department of Transportation has convened an interagency working group to monitor freight impacts and produce timely supply‑chain data, even as carriers continue to implement emergency surcharges, skip port calls and warn of schedule unreliability that will push near‑term freight volatility. (bts.gov)
