Farm inputs and seafood risk

Food inflation is easy to see at the checkout line. The more important story starts much earlier, with the things that make food possible in the first place. Fertilizer is one of them. Seafood fuel is another. Both now run through the same geopolitical bottleneck. About a third of the world’s fertilizer supply moves through the Strait of Hormuz, and the route has been so disrupted by the war with Iran that farmers are already facing shortages and sharp price jumps in the middle of spring planting (pbs.org). The American Farm Bureau Federation puts the concentration even more starkly for nitrogen products: countries exposed to disruption around the Persian Gulf account for nearly 49% of global urea exports and about 30% of global ammonia exports (fb.org). That matters because fertilizer is not a side input. It is the input for crops like corn. And timing is brutal. Farmers buy and apply fertilizer on a seasonal clock, not when markets calm down. PBS reported that U.S. farmers are paying far more than expected this spring, and some who did not preorder may not be able to get enough fertilizer at any price (pbs.org). The U.S. imports only part of its fertilizer directly from the Middle East, about 15%, but that does not offer much protection when the global benchmark is set by a region that dominates urea and ammonia trade (pbs.org; fb.org). The result is not just higher farm costs. It can change what gets planted. Farm Bureau warned in March that growers were already considering shifting acreage away from corn and toward crops like soybeans that need less fertilizer (fb.org). That is how a shipping disruption turns into a food supply story. First the price of nitrogen jumps. Then farmers cut application rates, switch crops, or plant less profitable ground. Then yields and inventories get tighter months later. By the time consumers notice, the cause is long gone from the headline. Seafood is getting hit by the same mechanism from the other side. Fish do not need fertilizer, but boats need diesel, processors need cold storage, and importers need dependable shipping. S&P Global reported in March that the seafood industry entered 2026 in better shape than feared on tariffs, but rising oil prices and geopolitical tension remained the big risk to costs and trade flows (spglobal.com). Then fuel costs surged. In Rhode Island, dockside diesel climbed to $5.75 a gallon after the Iran war began, nearly 50% above February levels, according to WBUR. Captains said a routine fuel bill that used to run about $4,000 was suddenly landing in the $6,000 to $8,000 range (wbur.org). That squeeze lands on a market the U.S. does not control. About 80% of seafood consumed in the United States comes from abroad, according to USDA’s Economic Research Service, which means American buyers are exposed to freight costs, foreign production costs, and tariff policy all at once (ers.usda.gov). Tariffs are part of the story, but they are not the whole story. Even where tariff pressure has eased from the chaos of 2025, seafood still has to move through an energy-intensive chain of boats, trucks, planes, freezers, and ports (spglobal.com). When fuel spikes, the catch gets more expensive before it even reaches the dock. This is why the current food story is bigger than inflation. Inflation is the symptom. The deeper problem is that a war near one narrow waterway can hit fertilizer, diesel, shipping insurance, and freight at the same time. On farms, that threatens yields. In fisheries, it threatens whether boats leave port. In Point Judith, one processor told WBUR that if local squid boats cannot afford to fish, calamari could become scarce nationwide (wbur.org).