AI is rewiring trade
Global trade grew faster than the world economy last year, but much of that growth was driven by AI‑related goods — McKinsey reports a 6.5% expansion with AI‑linked items like semiconductors, servers and GPUs accounting for roughly one‑third of the increase (scmp.com). Governments and companies are already adjusting: China issued guidance for its e‑commerce sector and is shifting up the value chain toward knowledge‑intensive services, suggesting trade will be rewired around compute and expertise rather than just traditional goods flows (retail-systems.com) (businesstimes.com.sg).
Global trade did something odd in 2025: it grew 6.5 percent even as tariffs, export controls, and political friction kept piling up. McKinsey says about one-third of that growth came from artificial-intelligence gear like semiconductors, servers, and graphics processing units, or GPUs. (scmp.com) That means the hot part of trade is no longer just finished products like shoes or televisions. It is the hardware inside data centers, where companies pack thousands of chips into warehouse-sized buildings to train and run artificial-intelligence systems. (scmp.com) McKinsey’s 2026 trade update says exports of semiconductors and data-center equipment made up one-third of global trade growth. The same report says trade between the United States and China fell by around 30 percent, even while Asian manufacturing hubs kept feeding the artificial-intelligence buildout. (mundopetroleo.com) The map of trade is shifting with the machinery. Taiwan, South Korea, and parts of Southeast Asia are supplying more of the chips and equipment, while the United States is absorbing more of the demand as cloud companies and technology groups race to build computing capacity. (mundopetroleo.com) The United States has been the loudest buyer in this cycle. One report on the McKinsey findings says United States trade in artificial-intelligence goods jumped by about 66 percent, which helps explain why chip plants, server makers, and power-equipment suppliers suddenly sit at the center of trade policy. (thehindubusinessline.com) Even the cargo system is adapting to this mix of tiny, expensive parts. The International Air Transport Association says air cargo is becoming more central to trade in artificial-intelligence goods, and it expects cargo traffic to grow 2.6 percent in 2026 as demand stays strong for high-value, time-sensitive shipments. (iata.org) China is adjusting in two directions at once. New guidance issued this week calls for cross-border electronic-commerce pilot zones, new rules and standards, and support for platforms expanding overseas, which shows Beijing still wants a bigger role in digital trade even under European scrutiny. (finance.yahoo.com) At the same time, China is trying to sell more expertise, not just more boxes. Official data for the first seven months of 2025 showed China’s services trade reached 4.58 trillion yuan, with knowledge-intensive services up 6.8 percent, which points to a move toward software, design, research, and other higher-value exports. (english.www.gov.cn) That is the rewiring: more trade value is now packed into a chip, a server rack, a cloud contract, or a technical service team than into many traditional goods. The countries that control compute, power equipment, logistics, and specialized know-how are starting to look like the new choke points of global commerce. (scmp.com)
