NOAA predicts below-normal Atlantic season

NOAA said on May 21 that it expects a below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, forecasting 8 to 14 named storms, 3 to 6 hurricanes and 1 to 3 major hurricanes. The outlook was issued by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center in collaboration with the National Hurricane Center and the Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory. NOAA said the Atlantic basin includes the North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America. The agency stressed that the seasonal outlook is a guide to overall activity, not a landfall forecast. ### Why is NOAA expecting a quieter Atlantic season this year? NOAA said El Niño is likely to emerge soon and is a key reason forecasters expect less activity in the Atlantic. In its climate update, the Climate Prediction Center said El Niño had an 82% chance of developing in May-July 2026 and a 96% chance of continuing through Northern Hemisphere winter 2026-27. (cpc.ncep.noaa.gov) The May 21 outlook said El Niño can increase upper-level wind shear over the tropical Atlantic, making it harder for storms to organize and intensify. NOAA paired that signal with what it described as generally less favorable atmospheric conditions for a busy Atlantic season. (cpc.ncep.noaa.gov) ### What do those storm numbers actually cover? NOAA’s forecast range covers the full Atlantic season, which runs from June 1 through November 30. The agency’s outlook calls for 8 to 14 named storms, meaning systems with winds of at least 39 mph, of which 3 to 6 are expected to become hurricanes with winds of at least 74 mph. Of those, 1 to 3 could reach major hurricane strength, defined as Category 3 or higher with winds of at least 111 mph. (cpc.ncep.noaa.gov) The National Hurricane Center said routine Atlantic tropical weather outlooks resume on June 1, with special outlooks issued earlier if conditions warrant. NOAA and the hurricane center publish tracking charts, forecasts and storm summaries throughout the season. ### Does a below-normal forecast mean people on the coast can relax? (cpc.ncep.noaa.gov) NOAA said no seasonal outlook predicts where storms will go or whether any will strike land. The agency said the outlook is meant to describe basin-wide activity, and that one storm can still be devastating regardless of how active the season is overall. (nhc.noaa.gov) National Hurricane Preparedness Week materials published by NOAA urged residents to prepare before the season starts, understand their local risk, and make sure they have multiple ways to receive forecasts and alerts. NOAA also said the best time to prepare is well before the official start of the season. ### What should people do before June 1? (cpc.ncep.noaa.gov) NOAA’s preparedness guidance says households should review evacuation plans, check insurance coverage, assemble disaster supplies and know whether they live in a flood-prone or storm-surge zone. The agency also recommends keeping backup power for phones, monitoring official forecasts and updating emergency contacts before any storm threatens. (noaa.gov) The National Hurricane Center and NOAA will post season updates, tropical outlooks and storm advisories on their official sites as June begins. The next concrete milestone is June 1, when the Atlantic hurricane season officially opens and routine outlooks resume. (noaa.gov 1) (noaa.gov 2)