Climate shocks accelerating
New analyses show several of Earth’s core systems are changing faster than recent models predicted — scientists warn climate change is accelerating, pushing more extreme weather and new health risks like dengue appearing in Florida, Texas and California. Forecasters are also tracking a potentially strong El Niño that could reshape the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, while courts are increasingly central to climate accountability after a Belgian court suspended a climate damages case against TotalEnergies. (nytimes.com) (news-medical.net) (foxweather.com) (messenger-inquirer.com)
A new multi‑dataset analysis finds the global warming rate over the past decade is roughly 0.35°C per decade — about double the ~0.2°C/decade seen from 1970–2015. (nature.com) Satellite and ocean observations show Earth’s energy imbalance has more than doubled over the past 20 years, with published estimates rising from ~0.6 W/m² in the early 2000s to about 1.3 W/m² by 2024. (theconversation.com) A Stanford‑led attribution study in One Earth linked Peru’s 2023 Cyclone Yaku to a dengue epidemic roughly ten times larger than normal and estimated about 60% of cases in the hardest‑hit districts were caused by the storm’s warmer, wetter conditions. (cell.com) U.S. surveillance and reporting show dengue is rising domestically: roughly 3,700 dengue infections were reported in the contiguous United States last year (up from ~2,050 in 2023), with 105 cases classified as locally acquired in California, Florida or Texas. (wusf.org) NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center and partner agencies put an El Niño watch in March 2026 and give a ~62% probability that El Niño will emerge in June–August 2026, with about a one‑in‑three chance it reaches “strong” levels (Niño‑3.4 ≥ +1.5°C) in Oct–Dec 2026. (cpc.ncep.noaa.gov) The Tournai commercial court in Belgium ruled a farmer’s suit against TotalEnergies admissible but suspended a merits decision pending a first‑instance Paris trial, with the Belgian court delaying judgment until September 2026; the plaintiff seeks roughly €130,000 in damages. (rfi.fr) Global tracking shows climate litigation has surged: the UNEP/Sabin Center Global Climate Litigation Report recorded 3,099 climate‑related cases filed across 55 national jurisdictions and 24 international forums as of June 30, 2025. (unep.org)
