Vanuatu Province Spared by Cyclone Urmil
Vanuatu's Tafea province has been given the all-clear after Cyclone Urmil shifted its path and moved away from the region. The storm spared the province from the major damage that had been anticipated earlier in the week.
Cyclone Urmil was the first named storm of the 2025-2026 South Pacific cyclone season, setting a new record for the latest start to the season, surpassing the previous record set by Cyclone Bart on February 21, 2017. The system intensified to a Category 2 cyclone, prompting the Vanuatu National Disaster Management Office to issue a red alert for Tafea province. Initial forecasts predicted damaging gale-force winds of up to 90 km/hr would significantly affect Tafea. The Vanuatu Meteorology and Geo-Hazards Department warned of heavy rainfall, potential flash flooding in low-lying areas, and very rough seas with heavy swells. Residents on islands like Tanna prepared for a night of severe weather, with some minor flooding and strong winds reported. The storm's trajectory ultimately shifted towards the southeast, moving it away from a direct and more destructive impact on the islands. This change in path was influenced by a mid-latitude upper trough that picked up the system and steered it into open waters. As the cyclone moved further south, it encountered a more hostile environment with decreasing ocean heat content and increasing wind shear, causing it to weaken. This near-miss serves as a reminder of Tafea's vulnerability to tropical cyclones. In March 2023, the province was one of the most affected areas when two successive Category 4 cyclones, Judy and Kevin, devastated the region, destroying up to 90% of houses. The province also suffered catastrophic damage during the Category 5 Cyclone Pam in 2015, which was one of the worst natural disasters in Vanuatu's history. That storm crippled infrastructure, destroyed between 50-90% of shelters in Tafea, and wiped out food stocks and crops. Vanuatu's cyclone season officially runs from November to April, and the nation is recognized as having one of the highest risks for natural disasters globally. The country has developed early warning systems, including a color-coded alert system (Blue, Yellow, and Red) to help communities prepare for impending storms.
