Intel Earnings Spotlight
- Intel reported results this week while investors focused on the economics of its foundry strategy. - Options markets priced roughly a 10% expected post-earnings move, with management still targeting $15bn external foundry sales by decade-end. - Analysts remain divided over whether foundry losses will shrink fast enough to justify the long-term platform plan. (thebull.com.au) (fool.com)
Intel reports first-quarter results after the close on Thursday, April 23, with investors zeroed in on whether its foundry push is getting less expensive to run. (intel.com) (intc.com) A foundry is a contract chip factory: customers hand over designs, and the manufacturer builds them at scale. Intel has spent the past two years reorganizing itself so its own product groups buy wafer capacity from Intel Foundry the way an outside customer would. (intel.com 1) (intel.com 2) Intel’s long-range target is unchanged. In April 2024, the company said Intel Foundry had more than $15 billion in expected lifetime deal value with external customers and said it was still aiming to become the world’s second-largest foundry by 2030. (intel.com) The problem is the math between here and there. Intel’s interim co-chief executives said in January 2025 that Intel Foundry posted a greater than $13 billion operating loss in 2024 and that management was still targeting break-even operating income for the unit by the end of 2027. (intel.com) That loss profile is why this earnings report carries more weight than a normal quarter. Reuters reported on April 21 that investors were focused on supply constraints and Intel’s ability to ramp chip output as businesses spend more on artificial-intelligence infrastructure. (reuters.com) The options market was braced for a sharp move before the report. Investopedia said on April 23 that options prices implied Intel shares could swing about 10% after earnings, reflecting how much uncertainty is tied to the foundry plan as well as the core chip business. (investopedia.com) Intel’s own guidance set a low bar for the quarter. MarketBeat, citing company guidance from the January earnings report, said Intel was looking for first-quarter revenue of $11.7 billion to $12.7 billion, non-GAAP gross margin of about 34.5%, and roughly break-even non-GAAP earnings per share. (marketbeat.com) (intel.com) Analysts are split on what comes next. Reuters said some investors want proof that supply bottlenecks are easing, while other analysts have argued the bigger question is whether foundry losses can narrow quickly enough to support Intel’s manufacturing build-out. (reuters.com) (fool.com) Intel does not need to settle that debate in one quarter. It does need to show, starting on April 23, that each earnings report is moving the foundry business closer to the 2027 break-even line it already put on the record. (intel.com)
