Mortgage rates track 10-year Treasury

Freddie Mac’s weekly mortgage survey and Mortgage Bankers Association analysis show why investors and homebuyers keep watching the 10-year Treasury yield when mortgage rates move. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 6.51% in the week ending May 21, up from 6.36% a week earlier, according to Freddie Mac. The 10-year Treasury is not the mortgage rate itself, but it is the benchmark market rate most often used to track where mortgage pricing is headed. Mortgage rates are also shaped by the spread investors demand to hold mortgage-backed securities instead of Treasuries. ### Why do people keep comparing mortgages with the 10-year Treasury? The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau said in a September 2024 report that mortgage interest rates and Treasury rates move together, and it published a chart pairing Freddie Mac mortgage data with the 10-year Treasury yield. The agency said higher mortgage rates were tied in large part to global monetary policy responses to post-pandemic inflation and to a wider spread between 10-year Treasuries and mortgage securities. CNBC reported on May 21 that the 10-year Treasury yield was 4.564% late that day, calling it the main benchmark for mortgages, auto loans and credit card debt. FRED data from the St. Louis Fed shows the 10-year constant-maturity Treasury series through May 21, 2026, giving markets a public reference point for the benchmark lenders watch. (consumerfinance.gov) ### If the 10-year is the benchmark, why isn’t a mortgage rate the same number? MBA said in a January 20, 2026 chart note that the spread between mortgage rates and Treasury rates is affected by interest-rate volatility and by the relative demand and supply balance between Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities. That spread is the extra yield investors require for risks that do not exist in the same way for Treasuries, including prepayment risk and market-structure differences. (cnbc.com) MBA said the mortgage-Treasury spread narrowed to 201 basis points for the week ending January 9, down from 209 basis points the week before and below the 220-basis-point average for December. In that note, MBA economists Mike Fratantoni and Joel Kan said a narrower spread helped pull the 30-year fixed rate to 6.18% at that time. (newslink.mba.org) ### Where does Fed policy fit into this if the Fed does not set mortgage rates directly? The Federal Reserve sets the federal funds rate, not the 30-year mortgage rate, but Fed policy shapes market expectations for inflation, growth and future short-term rates. The CFPB said mortgage rates had already started to decline in anticipation of Federal Reserve rate cuts and said further Fed actions would continue to affect the trajectory of mortgage rates. (newslink.mba.org) The Federal Reserve also affects mortgage markets through its balance sheet. A Fed note published in September 2024 said the central bank began shrinking its securities holdings in 2022 and in June 2024 slowed the pace of Treasury runoff while maintaining the cap on agency securities. Those decisions matter because agency mortgage-backed securities are the instruments through which many mortgage loans are financed and traded. (consumerfinance.gov) ### What do the latest mortgage numbers show? Freddie Mac said on May 21 that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.51%, up 15 basis points from the prior week, while the 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 5.85%, up from 5.71%. A year earlier, the 30-year fixed rate averaged 6.86%, Freddie Mac said. Freddie Mac said its survey is based on mortgage rates collected from thousands of loan applications submitted by lenders across the country. (federalreserve.gov) The company said the figures are averages of loan rates offered from the prior Thursday through Wednesday, which means the weekly print reflects market moves with a slight lag rather than a single live quote. ### Where can borrowers watch the next move? (freddiemac.com) Freddie Mac said its Primary Mortgage Market Survey is released weekly on Thursdays at 12 p.m. ET. The next scheduled update after the May 21 reading is May 28, 2026, and borrowers can compare that survey with daily 10-year Treasury data and lender quotes as markets reopen after the Memorial Day weekend. (freddiemac.com)