Western snowpack, wildfire risk

On April 1, the National Interagency Fire Center said fire activity had already picked up in March, and its outlook pushed above-normal significant fire potential into parts of the Southwest and central Rockies as spring turns to summer. (nifc.gov) The reason starts in the mountains, not the forests. Western snowpack works like a slow-release reservoir, and when that snow is thin or melts weeks early, streams drop sooner and grasses, brush, and dead wood dry out sooner too. (research.fs.usda.gov) This year, Colorado’s snow season appears to have peaked around March 9, roughly a month earlier than normal, according to reporting built from federal snow data. By April 7, statewide snowpack was running below the previous recorded minimum for that date. (kdvr.com) Colorado State University’s climate team said March 2026 will likely finish as Colorado’s warmest March in 132 years of records, about 3 to 4 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than any previous March. Heat like that does not just shrink snowbanks; it speeds evaporation and pulls moisture out of soils before summer even begins. (climate.colostate.edu) Federal forest scientists are calling this a “snow drought,” which means the problem is not only low precipitation but also temperatures warm enough to turn what should be mountain snow into rain or bare ground. In a snow drought year, the land loses the cushion that normally keeps forests cooler and wetter into late spring. (research.fs.usda.gov) That shift changes the kind of fire the West gets. A new study highlighted by Aspen Public Radio found that low-snowpack winters are linked to more high-severity fires, the kind that kill more living trees instead of mostly burning grass, shrubs, and surface litter. (aspenpublicradio.org) Colorado is especially exposed because several mountain basins are already showing tiny leftovers of snow heading into April. In the April 8 federal comparison report, sites in the Gunnison basin such as Columbine Pass had just 0.3 inches of snow water equivalent versus a median of 15.2 inches, and Idarado was at 0.0 versus 13.8. (wcc.sc.egov.usda.gov) Early melt can make April and May feel inviting because trails open faster and high-country access improves sooner. The tradeoff is that the same open ground can become flammable fuel by June, which raises the odds of campfire restrictions, smoky weekends, and closures later in the summer. (research.fs.usda.gov) The fire outlook is not a guarantee of a disastrous season, because one wet month can still slow things down and one dry, windy month can make things much worse. But when the West enters spring with record warmth, record-low snow, and runoff starting early, the calendar for wildfire starts moving forward too. (nifc.gov)