Taiwan’s security split widens
Taiwan’s post‑election security debate has intensified after a new U.S. intelligence assessment and a visit by four U.S. senators urging lawmakers to break a deadlock over a proposed $40 billion military spending boost — Beijing has loudly protested the U.S. intervention. Strategists in Taipei are sharply divided about whether increased deterrence or calmer engagement is the safer route as they weigh Trump administration signals from other theatres like Venezuela and Iran. ( )
Four U.S. senators — Jeanne Shaheen, John Curtis, Thom Tillis and Jacky Rosen — arrived in Taipei on March 30 for a two‑day delegation that pushed legislators to approve the stalled special defense budget. (nytimes.com) The budget in question is NT$1.25 trillion (about US$40 billion) proposed by President Lai Ching‑te in late November 2025 to fund an eight‑year program including a multi‑layer “T‑Dome” air‑defense network and asymmetric capabilities. (focustaiwan.tw) The spending plan remains blocked by a legislature controlled by opposition parties after the 2024 elections — the Kuomintang holds roughly 52 of 113 seats — creating the current impasse over the NT$1.25 trillion proposal. (vpm.org) Washington’s 2026 Annual Threat Assessment concluded Chinese leaders “do not currently plan to execute an invasion of Taiwan in 2027” and have no fixed timeline, while noting the People’s Liberation Army continues to build capabilities that could be used against the island. (dni.gov) U.S. officials and analysts point to concurrent U.S. policy moves — including reports of a separate roughly $14 billion arms package for Taiwan awaiting presidential sign‑off and a White House focus on crises in Iran that delayed the Trump‑Xi summit — as complicating Beijing’s and Taipei’s threat calculations. (bloomberg.com) Taiwan’s minister of national defense, Wellington Koo, has publicly argued for bolstering deterrence to make any attack “very risky” for Beijing, while some academics and commentators urge caution and engagement given the new U.S. intelligence framing and wider U.S. commitments elsewhere. (taipeitimes.com) The senators framed their message as a bid for cross‑party backing before U.S. diplomatic milestones — their Taipei stop came in the run‑up to a rescheduled Trump‑Xi meeting slated for May and amid broader U.S. efforts to lock in support for Taiwan’s defense plans. (abcnews.com)
