U.S. officials discuss possible energy sales to China ahead of Trump‑Xi summit

Energy is back on the U.S.-China agenda for a very simple reason — it is one of the few big-ticket trades both sides can restart fast. Ahead of Donald Trump’s May 14-15 summit with Xi Jinping in Beijing, U.S. officials have been floating a deal that would get China buying more American crude oil and liquefied natural gas again. The appeal is obvious. It creates a visible win without forcing either side into a much harder bargain over industrial policy, tech controls, or security disputes. ### Why energy? Because energy is fungible, enormous, and politically legible. If Beijing agrees to buy more U.S. crude or LNG, the White House can point to export gains, Gulf Coast producers get demand back, and China gets another supply source at a moment when global energy markets are jumpy. That is much easier than negotiating a structural rewrite of how the two economies compete. (money.usnews.com) ### What broke in the first place? Tariffs did. The current Chinese tariff stack on U.S. energy is still steep enough to choke off most trade: 20% on crude oil, 25% on LNG, 11% on propane and ethane, and roughly 28% to 31% on coal. Those rates combine product-specific duties with a broader 10% levy on all U.S. imports, which is why trade that once moved at scale has mostly stalled. (money.usnews.com) ### How big was this trade before the freeze? Big enough to matter, but not so big that restarting it would be technically hard. Chinese imports of U.S. oil and LNG were worth $8.4 billion in 2024, before the current round of trade disruption shut most of that flow down. Reuters’ breakdown also notes that LNG trade between the two countries has swung sharply with politics before, which is exactly why negotiators see it as reversible. (money.usnews.com) ### Why do purchases matter more than promises? Because purchases are measurable. A summit statement about “cooperation” is vague. A cargo of LNG leaving the Gulf Coast is not. Trump has long liked headline-ready commitments from China to buy American goods, and this summit appears to be built around that same logic — concrete deliverables first, thornier disputes later, if ever. Fox Business reported that farm goods and even jetliners are also in the mix, with AI chip restrictions sitting there as a likely sticking point. (money.usnews.com) ### Why not just do soybeans again? Agriculture is still on the table, but it is not the whole story anymore. Reuters reported that a farm deal may expand Chinese purchases of grains and meat, yet market watchers do not expect a major new soybean surge beyond what was already agreed last October. Energy, by contrast, offers a cleaner rebound story because flows have fallen so sharply and can be revived without pretending the broader trade relationship is healthy. (foxbusiness.com) ### What is hanging over the summit? A lot more than trade. The Beijing meeting comes with tensions over AI chips, Taiwan, rare earths, and the Iran war all in the background. Even the more optimistic previews frame economic deals as a way to stabilize the relationship, not solve it. In other words, more oil and LNG sales would be a pressure-release valve, not a reset. (peoplenewstoday.com) ### Why does domestic politics matter here? Because Americans remain deeply wary of China, but mostly as an economic threat rather than a military one. In the new NPR-Chicago Council-Ipsos polling, 56% saw the threat from China as more economic, versus 29% who saw it as more military. That makes a purchase deal politically useful — it can be sold as extracting economic benefit from a rival, not trusting a partner. (weforum.org) ### Bottom line? The likely shape of any near-term U.S.-China “breakthrough” is not a grand bargain. It is narrower than that. Think cargoes, contracts, and tariff carve-outs — especially in energy — because those are the few things both governments can still deliver quickly. (money.usnews.com) (vpm.org)