ISW: ceasefires need monitors
Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War warn any ceasefire will likely fail without independent monitors and clear procedures to adjudicate violations. They argue that pauses in fighting collapse not just because parties are insincere but because there is no trusted machinery to verify, attribute and contain breaches. (mezha.net)
The Institute for the Study of War says any Ukraine ceasefire is likely to break down without independent monitors and a clear system to judge violations. (understandingwar.org) The warning followed Russia’s Orthodox Easter truce, which President Vladimir Putin announced on April 10 to run from 1600 Moscow time on April 11 through the end of April 12. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Ukraine would “act accordingly,” but both sides reported violations within hours. (understandingwar.org) In its April 11 assessment, the Institute for the Study of War said Ukrainian and Russian sources were already accusing each other of limited breaches in the first hours of the pause. The group cited reports of rocket and drone strikes in Kherson region after the ceasefire took effect. (understandingwar.org) A ceasefire monitor is supposed to do more than count explosions. Researchers at Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich said a workable mission needs a strategy, tools to verify what happened, and a way to make violations “count” instead of just listing them. (ethz.ch) That problem is not new in Ukraine. The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe’s Special Monitoring Mission started work on March 21, 2014 and ended operations on March 31, 2022, leaving Ukraine without a formal international ceasefire monitoring system. (osce.org) The old mission was large but limited. The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe said it had almost 700 unarmed civilian monitors from more than 40 participating states, and its daily reports tracked violations across the war zone. (osce.org) Even that mission struggled to change behavior on the ground. Swissinfo reported that the monitors often logged thousands of violations a day, but the mission lacked a jointly agreed enforcement mechanism and a clear mandate strong enough to compel compliance. (swissinfo.ch) Russia’s full-scale invasion shut that system down. The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe said the mission’s mandate was not extended on March 31, 2022 because member states failed to reach consensus, and the organization later moved to close it. (osce.org) Governments discussing a future settlement have already started sketching replacements. Agence France-Presse reported in January that a draft statement for a Paris meeting said the United States would lead a “ceasefire monitoring and verification mechanism” with European participation if a peace deal is reached. (kyivpost.com) The argument from the Institute for the Study of War is narrow but practical: if no one trusted by both sides can verify, attribute and contain breaches, every reported strike becomes a new reason for the ceasefire to fail. (understandingwar.org)
