Hormuz disruption hits trade flows
The Iran–Israel conflict has sharply disrupted Gulf shipping and energy flows — the Strait of Hormuz traffic is reported down about 70% and the region handles huge shares of global oil, LNG and fertiliser trade. (x.com) Analysts estimate the shock affects roughly 20 million barrels per day of oil, about one‑fifth of global LNG, and around a quarter of traded fertilisers, a scale that can ripple through farm inputs and food availability worldwide. (x.com) The International Energy Agency and commentators warn this is among the largest oil disruptions ever — so expect elevated energy and input volatility for months. (x.com)
Tankers that normally move through the Strait of Hormuz every day are now scarce enough that the World Trade Organization’s tracker says outbound traffic from the Persian Gulf nearly stopped after Iran announced a closure on March 2, 2026. The United Nations trade agency said daily ship transits had already fallen from a February average of 129 to single digits by early March. (wto.org) (unctad.org) That matters because this is not a side route. The United Nations trade agency says the strait carries about 38% of global seaborne crude oil, 29% of liquefied petroleum gas, 19% of liquefied natural gas, and 13% of chemicals including fertilizers. (unctad.org) Oil is the first shock people notice. The International Energy Agency says around 20 million barrels a day of crude oil and oil products normally pass through Hormuz, and it called the current hit the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market. (iea.org) Gas is the second shock, and it lands hardest in Asia. The United States Energy Information Administration said in June 2025 that about one-fifth of global liquefied natural gas trade moved through Hormuz in 2024, with Qatar alone sending about 9.3 billion cubic feet a day through the passage and 83% of that Hormuz gas going to Asian buyers. (eia.gov) Fertilizer is the quieter problem. The World Trade Organization’s Hormuz tracker says fertilizer-related shipments dropped abruptly alongside oil and gas at the end of February, which means the disruption moved straight from energy markets into farm input supply chains. (wto.org) Shipping companies reacted like the route had become too dangerous to price. CNBC reported on March 2 that Maersk, Mediterranean Shipping Company, Hapag-Lloyd, and CMA CGM suspended or rerouted services, with some vessels sent around the Cape of Good Hope instead of through Hormuz and the Red Sea. (cnbc.com) That detour is expensive in two different ways. A longer voyage burns more fuel and ties up ships for more days, so the same disruption pushes up both the cost of the cargo on board and the cost of finding a ship to move the next cargo. (cnbc.com) (unctad.org) Prices moved fast even before the full shortage showed up at ports and refineries. The United Nations trade agency said Brent crude rose 27% and Dutch gas futures rose 74% between February 27 and March 9, 2026, as traders priced in the loss of flows before consumers felt the full effect. (unctad.org) Governments are already treating this like a long disruption, not a one-day scare. On March 11, the International Energy Agency said member countries agreed to release 400 million barrels from emergency reserves, the largest stock draw in the agency’s history. (iea.org) The United States Energy Information Administration said on April 7 that its latest oil forecast now depends heavily on how long the Hormuz closure lasts and how much production is forced offline. That is why this is showing up not just as a war story, but as a shipping story, an energy story, and a food story at the same time. (eia.gov)
