Goldman lifts M&A, warns recession risk
Goldman forecasts a 15% rise in U.S. M&A activity for 2026 while raising the U.S. recession probability to 30%, a macro combo that increases value‑at‑risk modeling complexity for asset allocators. They also reset oil forecasts higher to roughly $85/barrel amid supply shocks, and markets show divergence in digital assets like Ethereum with a negative Coinbase premium. (markets.financialcontent.com) (investinglive.com) (thestreet.com) (newsbtc.com)
Goldman’s 2026 M&A outlook, titled "Think Big, Build Bigger," explicitly flags a strategic wave of megadeals—transactions north of $10 billion—concentrated in AI, energy infrastructure and healthcare as corporate cash balances and a regulatory thaw converge. (financialcontent.com) The firm has incremented its near‑term recession odds from about 25% earlier this month to a higher level, citing rising energy costs linked to Middle East tensions, tighter financial conditions and waning fiscal support as the primary drivers. (investinglive.com) Goldman raised its 2026 Brent and WTI averages to roughly $85 and $79 per barrel, respectively, up from prior $77/$72 calls, based on a scenario that assumes Strait of Hormuz flows operate at ~5% capacity for six weeks and a one‑month recovery. (investinglive.com) The bank quantified the shock as a cumulative loss of just over 800 million barrels and described the disruption as the largest‑ever supply shock, a backdrop that Goldman models as likely to push inflation higher and delay Fed rate cuts. (bloomberg.com) On crypto, the Coinbase premium for Ether has remained negative — around -0.0149 on some trackers — signalling weaker US institutional buying while global venues like Binance drive recent price moves and ETH’s attempts to reclaim ~$2,200. (coinalertnews.com) Concrete dataset project idea tied to these calls: construct a VaR backtest that layers (a) Goldman’s Hormuz shock (5% flows × six weeks → ~800M bbl loss) as an oil‑price scenario and (b) an elevated 30% recession probability path, then compare portfolio drawdowns across a US equity basket, energy names and ETH using historical coinbase‑vs‑binance premium series. (investinglive.com)
