Economists cut global growth forecasts again, citing lingering trade and geopolitical shocks

The International Monetary Fund cut its 2026 global growth forecast to 3.1% on April 14, saying the world economy is being hit again by war in the Middle East and lingering trade disruption. (imf.org) The IMF said global growth should reach 3.2% in 2027, but that still leaves output below the 3.4% pace recorded in 2024 and 2025 and below the 3.7% average from 2000 to 2019. (imf.org) Its April forecast cut 2026 growth by 0.2 percentage point from the January 2026 update. The Fund said that without the conflict shock, it would have raised the 2026 forecast to 3.4% instead. (imf.org) The new drag starts with energy. The IMF and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development both said the Middle East conflict has pushed up commodity prices, lifted inflation expectations and tightened financial conditions. (imf.org) (oecd.org) Trade is the second hit. The IMF said the latest shock arrived less than a year after a shift in United States trade policy, with uncertainty still historically high and several temporary trade arrangements due to expire by the end of 2026. (imf.org) That leaves economists marking down growth in sequence, not isolation. The OECD had already cut its own 2026 global forecast to 2.9% on March 26, saying the energy shock would weigh on demand while keeping inflation higher for longer. (oecd.org) The pain is not evenly spread. The IMF said emerging market and developing economies face a 0.3 percentage point downgrade for 2026 versus January, while advanced-economy forecasts were broadly unchanged. (imf.org) Commodity-importing countries are especially exposed because higher oil and food prices can weaken their currencies and make imports costlier in local terms. The IMF said that combination can deepen inflation and squeeze growth at the same time. (imf.org) The World Bank had struck a different tone in January, projecting 2.6% global growth for 2026 and saying trade tensions were expected to ease. It also warned that the 2020s were on track to be the weakest decade for global growth since the 1960s. (worldbank.org) The immediate question now is whether the conflict stays limited. The IMF said a longer or broader war, fresh trade tensions or a market repricing could push growth lower and unsettle financial markets again. (imf.org)