China: Mixed growth signals
Some strategists say China has 'turned the corner' and expect Chinese stocks to rally as policy supports growth, while other analysts warn the economy remains lopsided toward producers and is neglecting consumer demand. ( ) Official Chinese outlets point to manufacturing resilience even as external reports flag risks — for example, a Spanish analysis warns high‑tech imports from China could shave about €2.3bn off Spain's GDP and an investor note says cooling mainland demand is forcing luxury groups to refocus on other markets. ( )
China’s economy is sending two signals at once: factories and exports are still growing, while investors and analysts are split on whether households will start spending enough to sustain it. (bloomberg.com) (reuters.com) Stephen Jen of Eurizon SLJ Capital told Bloomberg on April 14 that China has “turned the corner” and said Chinese stocks could rise 10% by year-end as policy support feeds through and valuations stay low. A Reuters poll published April 13 said first-quarter growth likely improved on solid exports before slowing later in 2026. (bloomberg.com) (reuters.com) The hard data also split the picture. China’s customs data for March showed exports up 2.5% from a year earlier and imports up 27.8%, while January-February industrial output rose 6.3% and retail sales rose more slowly, with online retail sales up 9.2%. (english.customs.gov.cn) (stats.gov.cn 1) (stats.gov.cn 2) State media has emphasized the factory side of that ledger. Xinhua said on April 14 that China’s manufacturing base remained resilient as policy backing and industrial upgrading supported output. (english.news.cn) Outside China, the same strength looks less comforting. El Español reported on April 13 that a Spanish analysis estimated high-tech imports from China could cut about €2.3 billion from Spain’s gross domestic product by displacing domestic production. (elespanol.com) Luxury groups are reading a different weak spot: the Chinese consumer. An investor note carried by Ad Hoc News said cooling mainland demand is pushing companies including Richemont to refocus on other markets after years of relying on China for growth. (ad-hoc-news.de) That debate has been building for months in official and multilateral reports. The International Monetary Fund said in February that China still needs to shift from investment-led growth toward stronger household consumption, while the World Bank’s December 2025 update said weak domestic demand and property-sector stress were still weighing on the economy. (imf.org) (worldbank.org) The market question now is whether policy support can turn a producer-led rebound into a broader one. If upcoming gross domestic product and spending data show households catching up with factories, the bullish case gets stronger; if not, China’s mixed signals will keep looking mixed. (reuters.com) (imf.org)
