Summer flights at risk
Reuters reports Europe’s summer flights are at risk because the Iran war has exposed a decline in refining capacity that threatens jet‑fuel supply (reuters.com). USA Today warns a jet‑fuel shortage could cut flights worldwide, and regional reporting says rising fuel costs are already pushing airfares up as airlines add surcharges ( ).
Europe’s summer flight schedules are under pressure because airlines may not be able to get enough jet fuel, even if planes and crews are ready. (reuters.com) The immediate problem is fuel, not demand: the war around Iran disrupted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, and Reuters reported on April 15 that Europe is more dependent on jet-fuel imports than any other transport fuel. (reuters.com) Europe’s refining system is thinner than it used to be. Reuters said more than 30 refineries, equal to about 16% of the continent’s refining capacity, have shut over the past 25 years, leaving the region more exposed when imported fuel is disrupted. (reuters.com) Jet fuel is made in refineries from crude oil, so damage or delays anywhere in that chain can leave airports short even when crude is still available. The International Air Transport Association said the global average jet-fuel price was $197.83 a barrel last week. (iata.org) The squeeze is not limited to Europe. USA Today reported on April 16 that airlines and industry experts were warning of a difficult summer for international travel as fuel supplies tightened with no certain plan to reopen the strait. (usatoday.com) Supply losses upstream are part of the reason. Reporting that reproduced Reuters said Asian refineries, which rely heavily on Middle East crude, cut runs by about 3 million barrels a day between February and April, citing the International Energy Agency. (economictimes.indiatimes.com, iea.org) Airports and airline groups have been warning that the shortage could become operational, not just expensive. National Public Radio reporting on April 16 said one European airport group warned of a “systemic jet fuel shortage” if Hormuz traffic does not normalize by the end of April. (npr.org) Airlines are already passing part of the shock to travelers. KGW in Portland reported on April 14 that some carriers are adding fuel surcharges, and one Oregon travel agent said fares to Europe were already 30% to 50% above last year. (kgw.com) Industry officials say a ceasefire would not fix this quickly. Politico Europe reported on April 8 that International Air Transport Association Director General Willie Walsh said it could still take months for jet-fuel supply to recover even if the strait reopened and stayed open. (politico.eu) That leaves airlines heading into the busiest travel season with two linked problems at once: too little fuel in some markets and much higher fuel costs in others. Travelers may see both outcomes this summer — fewer flights on some routes and higher fares on the flights that remain. (reuters.com, usatoday.com, kgw.com)
