Maritime pilot threads on rate history

# Maritime Pilot Threads on Rate History A senior maritime pilot with over 30 years navigating New York Harbor posted a detailed Twitter thread charting wild swings in tanker shipping rates from the Caribbean to New York over the past two years. Bart Gonnissen, who guides massive oil tankers through busy coastal lanes, used charts, videos, and spot market data to argue that the industry needs fixed freight schedules to tame these unpredictable spikes. (x.com) ## What Are Maritime Pilots? Maritime pilots are local experts who board large ships entering or leaving ports, steering them through tricky channels, traffic, and weather that captains from distant seas might not know. In New York, pilots like Gonnissen handle about 4,000 vessel transits yearly, including oil tankers carrying crude from Caribbean refineries to U.S. East Coast markets. (sandyhookpilots.com) These pilots see firsthand how rate volatility disrupts supply chains—tankers delay voyages when rates crash or rush in when they surge, clogging ports and stranding fuel for airlines and power plants. Gonnissen's thread highlights this chaos in the "Caribbean-to-New York" lane, a key route for Venezuelan and Colombian heavy crude feeding U.S. refineries. (reuters.com) ## The Rate Rollercoaster Gonnissen's thread starts in early 2024, when spot rates for Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs)—tankers holding 2 million barrels—plummeted to $12,000 per day from $50,000 peaks during Red Sea disruptions. By mid-2025, rates spiked to $85,000 daily as sanctions on Venezuelan oil tightened supply, forcing longer routes around Africa and stranding 20+ tankers off New York. (x.com; spglobal.com) He embeds a video of a 330-meter VLCC inching through fog-shrouded Ambrose Channel, underscoring how rate surges lead to unsafe rushing: vessels arrive overloaded or under-crewed, raising collision risks in the 1,200-square-mile pilotage area. Rates then crashed 70% to $25,000 by Q1 2026 amid oversupply, leaving ships idle and shippers scrambling for spots. (x.com; bloomberg.com) ## Why the Swings Happen Caribbean-to-New York tanker rates swing because they follow the "spot market," where owners offer ships day-by-day based on instant supply and demand, unlike long-term charter contracts that lock in $40,000-$60,000 daily rates for years. Geopolitical shocks amplify this: U.S. sanctions cut Venezuelan exports 40% in 2025, spiking demand, while a 2026 license renewal flooded the lane with 15 million barrels monthly. (eia.gov; wsj.com) Seasonal factors pile on—hurricane season idles rigs, while winter heating oil demand pulls 10-15 extra VLCCs weekly. Gonnissen compares this to airline ticket prices: spot rates are like last-minute fares that double during storms, punishing shippers without contracts. (tradewindsnews.com) ## Gonnissen's Fix: Standardized Schedules Gonnissen proposes "standardized freight schedules" modeled on liner shipping, where container lines like Maersk run fixed weekly sailings at stable rates, reducing no-shows by 25%. For tankers, this could mean published monthly slots from Aruba or Curacao to New York at $45,000/day, letting refiners like Phillips 66 plan around fixed costs instead of gambling on bids. (x.com; maersk.com) He cites historical data: during 2022's stable period, rates held at $35,000-$42,000 with minimal surprises, cutting demurrage fees—costs for delayed loading—by 40% for regional shippers. Videos in the thread show empty berths during rate crashes, contrasting with 2025 pileups that delayed deliveries by 10 days. (x.com; hellenicshippingnews.com) ## Industry Pushback and Potential Impact Tankers resist schedules because 70% of voyages are irregular, serving refineries with unpredictable crude grades like Merey heavy sour, unlike uniform containers. But Gonnissen notes successes: Brazil's Petrobras uses semi-fixed tanker rotations, stabilizing rates within 15% yearly. If adopted, clearer schedules could cut New York Harbor delays by 20%, saving $500 million annually in fuel and fees for the 500+ annual Caribbean crude cargoes. (argusmedia.com; portauthority.nyc) The thread, posted April 7, 2026, drew 1,200 likes and replies from brokers praising the analysis, though owners called it "impractical for commodities." As rates hover at $38,000 today, Gonnissen's call spotlights a fix for an industry where $10 billion in annual U.S. oil imports ride on these volatile lanes. (x.com; clarksons.com)