Reshoring shows up in flows
Analysts publishing flow‑data say reshoring is visible beyond headlines — trade flows are shifting in ways that suggest partial onshoring rather than a full reversal of global sourcing. That data pattern sits alongside evidence that supply chains have geographically redirected rather than disappeared. (x.com)
Reshoring is showing up in hard trade data, but mostly as a partial shift in where production stages happen, not a clean break from global sourcing. (kansascityfed.org) Kearney’s 2024 Reshoring Index said United States imports from 14 Asian low-cost economies fell to $878 billion in 2023 from $1.021 trillion in 2022, with Chinese imports down $105 billion, or 20 percent. The firm said Mexico’s manufactured exports to the United States rose to $422 billion in 2023, up 32 percent from pre-pandemic levels. (kearney.com) The same Kearney report said the United States self-sufficiency index, which tracks domestic output against imports, turned up after 2020 and rose 5 percent from 2022 to 2023. Its survey found 38 percent of manufacturing executives still looking to reshore or nearshore operations from mainland China. (kearney.com) Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City researchers described the pattern as a “great reallocation” in a 2023 Jackson Hole paper. They found direct United States sourcing from China fell from 2017 to 2022, while Vietnam and Mexico gained share and the mix of imports moved more “upstream,” a sign that some production stages were returning home. (kansascityfed.org) That does not add up to deglobalization in the simple sense of fewer cross-border links. The same Kansas City Fed paper said the evidence did not show a full reduction in dependence on supply chains linked to China, and a 2024 Federal Reserve note found other United States suppliers were relying more on Chinese imports even as direct United States imports from China fell. (kansascityfed.org) (federalreserve.gov) Mexico is the clearest example of that redirection. Dallas Fed said Mexico became the largest source of United States goods imports in 2023 and accounted for 15.5 percent of those imports in 2024, while China’s share of United States imports fell to 13.4 percent in 2024 from 21.6 percent in 2017. (dallasfed.org) Dallas Fed also said China’s exports to Mexico reached 21 percent of Mexico’s imports in 2024, producing an almost $120 billion Chinese trade surplus with Mexico. It said imports from East Asia outside China have also accelerated into Mexico as electronics supply chains deepen. (dallasfed.org) New York Fed economists argued in February 2025 that official United States data overstate the drop in imports from China because some Chinese content is arriving through third countries. Their conclusion was that United States imports from China have fallen by less than headline statistics suggest. (libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org) Global trade totals also do not look like a system in retreat. United Nations Trade and Development said world trade reached a record $33 trillion in 2024, up 3.7 percent from 2023, while supply chains in 2024 “diversify, not consolidate” across multiple regions. (unctad.org) Domestic investment is still part of the story. The Reshoring Initiative said companies announced 244,000 United States reshoring and foreign direct investment jobs in 2024, and that reshoring outpaced foreign direct investment by the widest margin since its tracking began in 2010. (reshorenow.org) The picture in the flows is narrower than the politics and broader than the slogans: less direct buying from China, more sourcing through Mexico and Southeast Asia, and some production work moving back to the United States. The supply chain did not disappear; it changed address. (kansascityfed.org) (dallasfed.org)
