China Sets 4.5-5% GDP Growth Target
China has announced a GDP growth target of 4.5% to 5% as it kicks off its 15th Five-Year Plan for 2026-2030. The target signals a goal of seeking progress while maintaining stability for the world's second-largest economy.
This marks the lowest GDP growth target China has set since 1991, a downgrade from the "around 5%" goal of the previous three years. For 2025, the economy officially expanded by 5.0%, meeting the government's target despite moderating momentum throughout the year. The lowered target reflects significant economic headwinds, primarily a multi-year property sector crisis that began in 2021. This real estate slump has dampened investment, hurt household confidence, and contributed to weak domestic demand. In response, policymakers are using city-specific measures to reduce the housing inventory and have considered national-level interventions like mortgage subsidies. Concurrently, a major effort is underway to manage massive local government debt, including a program to swap trillions in hidden liabilities for lower-interest, official bonds. The 15th Five-Year Plan prioritizes a shift towards "high-quality development" rather than sheer speed. Key objectives include achieving technological self-reliance in strategic sectors like semiconductors and artificial intelligence, and modernizing traditional industries. Boosting domestic consumption is another central pillar of the new plan, with the goal of making it the primary engine of economic growth. The government plans to support this by increasing personal incomes and expanding the country's middle class. The plan also heavily emphasizes a green transition, aiming to build a "new energy system" by scaling up renewable sources like solar, wind, and nuclear power. China's goal is to have non-fossil fuels account for 25% of its total energy consumption by 2030.