Asia growth split
China set a 2026 growth target of 4.5–5% but early-year consumption is tracking the weakest start outside the pandemic, raising doubts about hitting that goal reported — reported. By contrast, Fitch has moved India’s FY26 forecast up to 7.5% on strong domestic demand and investment, marking a clear divergence among Asia’s biggest economies reported.
Retail sales for the first two months of 2026 likely rose just 2.1%—the weakest start to a year outside January–February 2020—according to Bloomberg’s early data read. bloomberg.com Fitch has flagged that a prolonged property slump and local-government debt will keep domestic demand constrained and recently projected China’s growth could be nearer 4.1% for 2026 while noting targeted measures such as trade‑in programmes and personal‑loan subsidies. fitchratings.com A record $1.19 trillion trade surplus in 2025 boosted headline GDP even as factory output outpaced consumption; analysts and data outlets noted Q4 growth slowed to about 4.5% while retail remained the soft spot. thediplomat.com India’s momentum has been driven by strong early‑year activity—GDP expanded roughly 7.8% year‑on‑year in Q1 of FY26 per national outturns—and foreign portfolio investors returned with about ₹22,615 crore of equity inflows in February 2026, the largest monthly FPI inflow in 17 months. moneycontrol.com
