U.S. imports reroute 10% to Vietnam, Mexico

U.S. trade data through March 2026 show imports are moving away from China and toward Mexico and Vietnam, though the official numbers do not prove that all of the shift is simple rerouting. Census Bureau country tables show first-quarter goods imports from China fell to $60.9 billion from $98.2 billion a year earlier, while imports from Mexico rose to $138.0 billion from $120.3 billion. (census.gov) Vietnam's January-February goods imports into the United States rose to $35.3 billion from $27.3 billion a year earlier, the latest month available on that series. (bea.gov) Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis economists Maximiliano Dvorkin and Melanie LeTourneau wrote in January that U.S. import levels and effective tariff rates had shifted markedly since early 2025, with China facing the sharpest increase in effective tariff rates among major partners. Their analysis, based on Census shipment-level records, said tariff changes were followed by lower imports from China and higher imports from alternative suppliers. (census.gov) Harvard Business School said in an April summary of Laura Alfaro's research that U.S. imports have shifted away from China and toward Mexico and other partners after tariff changes, while an IMF conference paper posted this month said compensating increases have come from Vietnam, Mexico and Taiwan. ### How large is the change in the official U.S. numbers? First-quarter 2026 goods imports from China were down 38.0% from the same period of 2025, based on Census figures. (stlouisfed.org) The same comparison shows Mexico up 14.8%. Vietnam's January-February imports were up 29.2% from the same two months of 2025. March 2026 imports from China totaled $20.9 billion, compared with $29.4 billion in March 2025. March imports from Mexico were $51.2 billion, up from $48.0 billion a year earlier. (library.hbs.edu) Vietnam's March figure was not yet posted on the Census country page returned in search results, so the most recent verified comparison there is through February. ### Does that prove 10% of imports were rerouted through Vietnam and Mexico? The Census tables do not by themselves prove a precise 10% rerouting share. (census.gov) They show country-of-origin imports, not whether a shipment was substantially transformed in a third country or merely transshipped. The Diplomat, citing analysis by academics at Harvard, Duke and Academia Sinica, reported in January that more than $8 billion of Chinese exports were rerouted through Vietnam to the United States in the first three quarters of 2025. (census.gov) That report defined rerouting as goods produced entirely in China and passed through Vietnam without substantial value added. ### Why are Mexico and Vietnam the main places showing up in the data? Mexico already had the largest goods import base among the three countries in the U.S. data, at $534.9 billion for full-year 2025, making it the most immediate alternative for North American sourcing. (census.gov) Vietnam imported $193.8 billion of goods into the United States in 2025, far below Mexico's level but rising faster over the past two years. St. Louis Fed economists said China faced the steepest jump in effective tariff rates after the 2025 policy changes, while Mexico's increase was much smaller. (thediplomat.com) That gap helps explain why buyers would look for suppliers outside China, though the economists did not say every gain for Mexico or Vietnam represented tariff circumvention. ### What can and cannot be said from here? The verified data support a clear directional story: direct U.S. goods imports from China are lower in early 2026, and imports from Mexico and Vietnam are higher. (census.gov) The data do not support stating as fact, without a named study behind it, that exactly 10% of U.S. imports were rerouted through those two countries. June 9 is the next key date. The Census Bureau and Bureau of Economic Analysis said they will release the April trade report that day, along with annual revisions to goods and services trade statistics beginning with 2021. (stlouisfed.org) (bea.gov) (census.gov)