Private credit risk map widens

Asia’s private-credit risk map is widening beyond China as more money chases loans across developed markets and weaker borrower segments. (aima.org) Private credit is non-bank lending to companies and projects, and the Asia-Pacific market is projected to grow 46% to $92 billion by 2027 from $59 billion in 2024. Wealth investors’ share of assets is expected to rise to 28% by 2027, up from 23% in 2020. (aima.org) A big part of that shift is product design. Morgan Stanley said on February 10, 2026 that semi-liquid funds — vehicles that offer periodic redemptions instead of locking money up for years — have grown fastest in private credit as managers push into wealth channels. (morganstanley.com) The market is also spreading geographically. Chambers and Partners said Asia-Pacific private credit has grown at more than 20% a year over the past five years, with Australia, India, Japan, Vietnam and Thailand all drawing more lender attention. (practiceguides.chambers.com) India shows the pace of expansion. Chambers said India’s private-credit assets under management reached about $17.8 billion in 2023, and deployment hit $9.0 billion across 79 deals in the first half of 2025, exceeding the $7 billion to $10 billion recorded in all of 2024. (practiceguides.chambers.com) The new stress points are no longer only China property workouts. Bloomberg reported on March 10, 2026 that developed-market loan blowups and redemption pressure at large U.S. credit funds pushed some limited partners to ask Asia managers about shifting capital into the region. (businesstimes.com.sg) That pressure has been visible in fund structures built for easier exits. BlackRock capped withdrawals from its $26 billion HPS Corporate Lending Fund at 5% after investors sought nearly double that amount, and Blackstone’s flagship credit fund posted a 7.9% redemption, according to Bloomberg. (businesstimes.com.sg) Managers pitching Asia say the region still looks more conservative than the United States and Europe. At the Fiduciary Investors Symposium in Singapore on March 31, 2026, IFM Investors’ Hiran Wanigasekera said Asia-Pacific private credit accounts for 5% of the asset class while the region represents 46% of world gross domestic product, citing International Monetary Fund and Preqin data. (top1000funds.com) But Asia is not a single market. AIMA said the region spans more than 50 jurisdictions, 90% of transactions are sponsorless, and investors still face fragmented rules, currency mismatches and uneven creditor protections. (aima.org) That leaves less room for broad-brush bets. As private credit moves from a China-heavy story to a region-wide market shaped by retail inflows, the edge shifts to managers that can underwrite each borrower, negotiate tighter documents and handle restructurings country by country. (aima.org)