Chinese exports rose after 'Liberation Day' tariffs, undercutting U.S. tariff impact

China’s exports kept rising into early 2026, even after President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs hit Chinese goods in April 2025. (economist.com) (csis.org) Trump announced the reciprocal tariff package on April 2, 2025, then paused the higher country-specific rates for most countries on April 9 while raising the reciprocal tariff on Chinese goods to 125% on top of an existing 20% China tariff. (brownstein.com) China’s General Administration of Customs reported exports rose 21.8% year over year in January and February 2026, far above the 7.1% median forecast in a Reuters poll, with the trade surplus reaching $213.62 billion. (globalbankingandfinance.com) (cnbc.com) March then slowed sharply, but did not turn negative. Customs data showed exports still rose 2.5% from a year earlier in March 2026, leaving first-quarter exports up 14.7% year over year. (cnbc.com) (tradingeconomics.com) (stats.gov.cn) That pattern matters because the tariffs were meant to create immediate pressure on Chinese exporters and Beijing. Instead, Chinese shipments stayed high enough to keep the export machine supporting growth. (csis.org) (economist.com) Part of the explanation was timing. Economists said firms rushed shipments before tariff deadlines, and China’s customs data for early 2026 were also boosted by strong electronics demand tied to the artificial intelligence investment boom. (globalbankingandfinance.com) (cnbc.com) Part of it was policy design. The White House pause for most trading partners, plus exclusions that remained in place for some products, reduced the shock from a clean, simultaneous global tariff hit. (brownstein.com) Trade also shifted rather than simply stopped. The Economist reported that while exports to America fell, China kept gaining share in other markets and in products such as transistors, whose exports rose 26% in dollar terms in the first three months of 2026. (economist.com) The March slowdown showed the limits of that resilience. Reuters and other outlets said the war in Iran raised energy and transport costs, and exports to the United States fell as tariffs bit more directly. (msn.com) (rte.ie) So the near-term effect of the tariff campaign was less a collapse in Chinese exports than a reshuffling of orders, routes and costs. By April 2026, the data showed slower momentum, but not the sharp export contraction the tariff rollout was supposed to deliver. (economist.com) (tradingeconomics.com)