Ukraine gains stall

Russia’s advance in Ukraine slowed sharply in March, but the war did not move any closer to a durable ceasefire. (understandingwar.org) The Institute for the Study of War said on March 31 that Russian gains had slowed over the previous six months as Ukrainian counterattacks, mid-range strikes and disruptions to Russian battlefield communications raised the cost of further advances. Russia still controlled about 13% of Ukraine as of March 31, according to Russia Matters’ monthly tracker based on Institute for the Study of War mapping. (understandingwar.org) (russiamatters.org) The front remains active across roughly 1,000 kilometers, and even brief truces have not held. Reuters reported on April 11 that both sides accused each other of violating a 32-hour Orthodox Easter ceasefire within hours of its start. (msn.com) (aljazeera.com) Diplomacy has kept moving in short bursts rather than through sustained talks. Ukrainian officials were still discussing ceasefire ideas with U.S. negotiators on April 1, while President Volodymyr Zelensky was publicly pushing for a pause in fighting over Easter. (kyivindependent.com) The military slowdown has coincided with a political shift in the West, not a settlement on the battlefield. The House of Commons Library said in a March 9 briefing that U.S. policy under President Donald Trump had changed the terms of support for Kyiv and pushed Europe to assume more responsibility for Ukraine and for its own security. (commonslibrary.parliament.uk) That response is now showing up in budgets and borrowing plans. The European Commission’s ReArm Europe plan, presented in March 2025, set out more than €800 billion in potential defence spending, including a €150 billion loan instrument known as Security Action for Europe, or SAFE; the Council of the European Union formally adopted SAFE on May 27, 2025. (europarl.europa.eu) (consilium.europa.eu) Britain has paired that European push with new military aid for Kyiv. The UK government said on March 9 that it remained a leading supplier to Ukraine, and British defence officials later announced a £450 million support package to help Ukraine’s armed forces. (gov.uk) (des.mod.uk) Moscow and Kyiv still describe the basic terms of peace in ways that do not match. Ukraine is seeking security guarantees and a halt to Russian attacks, while Russia continues to press military operations even as it signals interest in limited pauses and prisoner swaps. (kyivindependent.com) (msn.com) For now, the map is changing more slowly than it did late last year, but the war’s basic pattern has not changed: grinding frontline combat, intermittent diplomacy and a faster European move to rearm. (understandingwar.org) (commonslibrary.parliament.uk) (europarl.europa.eu)