India state‑poll volatility
State elections are looking unusually volatile: BJP veterans and rebels are quitting in Assam ahead of the April 9 vote, giving Congress an opening among the roughly 6 million ‘tea‑tribe’ voters. At the same time AIADMK published a constituency‑wise NDA seat‑sharing plan and a first 23‑candidate list for Tamil Nadu’s April 23 polls, while Kerala shows thin margins and rising NOTA support — the Election Commission has even raised pay for poll officials across five states to cope with the complexity. (thefederal.com) (timesofindia.indiatimes.com) (indiatoday.in) (timesofindia.indiatimes.com) (thehindu.com)
Veteran leader Rajen Gohain formally quit the BJP on Oct. 9–10, 2025 along with 17 others, citing the party’s treatment of senior cadres and demographic concerns in Assam. (economictimes.indiatimes.com) The BJP’s latest candidate reshuffle dropped about 19 sitting MLAs including Atul Bora and has prompted fresh exits and rebel bids, while at least 30 party functionaries resigned en masse in Dima Hasao after ticket denials and the sidelining of minister Nandita Garlosa. (indiatoday.in) Assam’s tea‑tribe and Adivasi electorate is routinely estimated at roughly 55–60 lakh (around six million) voters and concentrates in Upper Assam, where those communities shape outcomes across dozens of assembly segments. (economictimes.indiatimes.com) AIADMK’s release of a constituency‑wise NDA formula assigns a combined 65 seats to allies and leaves the party to fight 169 constituencies itself, with the BJP allotted 27 seats including Mylapore, Madurai South and Nagercoil in the formal list. (timesofindia.indiatimes.com) AIADMK’s first 23‑name list for the April 23 ballot names Edappadi K. Palaniswami from Edappadi and renominees such as K P Munusamy, S P Velumani and D. Jayakumar among the initial batch. (economictimes.indiatimes.com) The Election Commission raised remuneration ahead of polls in five states — West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry — boosting presiding officers’ pay to Rs 500 per day, micro‑observers’ fees to Rs 2,000 and hiked tiffin allowances to Rs 500. (theprint.in) Data from the 2021 Kerala polls shows NOTA captured 97,695 votes (0.47% of votes cast), and analysts flag that at least 22 constituencies were decided by margins of a few thousand votes in 2021 — a pattern keeping multiple Kerala seats highly contestable in 2026. (thehindu.com)
