U.S. tariffs in flux
A recent court ruling and fast policy moves have left U.S. tariff policy unstable: the administration is launching a tariff‑refund system on April 20 even as it has shifted to a 15% global tariff under a different statute. (investing.com, fortune.com) CEOs are treating tariffs as a durable business condition, and government officials have signalled the measures could be fully restored by July—forcing markets to price multiple possible trade regimes. (fortune.com, startupfortune.com)
Washington is building a tariff-refund portal for importers even as it keeps collecting a different set of tariffs on many of the same goods. (msn.com) U.S. Customs and Border Protection said in court filings that its first refund tool, called CAPE, will go live on April 20 and send one electronic payment per importer for duties invalidated by the Supreme Court. Bloomberg Law reported the agency plans to roll the system out in phases. (yahoo.com, news.bloomberglaw.com) The refunds trace back to a February 20, 2026 Supreme Court ruling in *Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump* that said the International Emergency Economic Powers Act does not authorize tariffs. Norton Rose Fulbright said the decision invalidated the administration’s International Emergency Economic Powers Act tariffs nationwide and opened the door to refunds for affected importers. (nortonrosefulbright.com) The administration did not abandon broad tariffs after that ruling. Grant Thornton said President Donald Trump invoked Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 within hours of the decision to keep a broad import surcharge in place while other trade cases move forward. (grantthornton.com) That matters because Section 122 is a temporary tool. Grant Thornton said tariffs under that law took effect on February 24 and expire after 150 days, on July 24, unless Congress extends them. (grantthornton.com) Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on April 14 that tariff rates could be restored to earlier levels by the beginning of July through Section 301 investigations. Bloomberg Law reported he described the Supreme Court ruling as a setback, not an endpoint. (news.bloomberglaw.com) Business leaders are planning as if tariffs will last. Fortune, in a report carried by Yahoo Finance, said a PwC survey found 86% of United States executives now treat tariffs as a long-term planning assumption. (finance.yahoo.com) PwC’s broader 2026 Global CEO Survey, based on 4,454 chief executives across 95 countries and territories, found revenue confidence at a five-year low and cited tariffs among the pressures on companies. That helps explain why firms are adjusting pricing, sourcing, and cash-flow plans before the legal picture is settled. (pwc.com, finance.yahoo.com) The next three months now carry three separate deadlines: April 20 for refunds to start, early July for possible restoration of broader tariff rates, and July 24 for the Section 122 clock to run out. Until one legal path clearly wins, importers are preparing for refunds from the last tariff regime while paying into the current one. (news.bloomberglaw.com, news.bloomberglaw.com, grantthornton.com)
