Inflation, oil shocks and weak growth
Core inflation surprised on the upside in February—services, food and energy all helped reverse last year’s disinflation trend reported. That’s colliding with fresh oil shocks from West Asia: carriers like IndiGo and Air India have added steep international fuel surcharges, while the U.S. revised Q4 GDP down to a tepid 0.7%, underscoring slower growth and stickier prices reported reported.
The Bureau of Labor [Statistics reported]bls.gov the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers rose 0.3% in February 2026 and 2.4% year‑over‑year. The [BLS showed]bls.gov core inflation (all items less food and energy) climbed 0.2% for the month and stood at 2.5% on a 12‑month basis. IATA’s Jet Fuel Price [Monitor recorded]iata.org a 58.4% weekly jump to $157.41 per barrel for the week ending March 6, 2026, underpinning carriers’ pricing moves. [IndiGo announced]economictimes.indiatimes.com a per‑sector fuel charge effective March 14 ranging from ₹425 for domestic/South‑Asia sectors to ₹2,300 for Europe, while Air India began a phased surcharge rollout earlier in March. indianexpress.com The U.S. Bureau of Economic [Analysis released]bea.gov a second estimate showing real GDP grew at a 0.7% annualized rate in Q4 2025, with the BEA citing increases in consumer spending and investment partly offset by declines in government spending and exports. BEA data show the PCE price index rose 2.9% in Q4 and core PCE 2.7% [according to the BEA release]bea.gov, the BLS CPI core read 2.5% year‑over‑year [per the BLS]bls.gov, U.S. Treasury yields finished March 13 around 4.28% for the 10‑year note [per Advisor Perspectives]advisorperspectives.com, and the FOMC is scheduled to meet March 17–18, 2026 [per a market calendar preview].kpmg.com
