Oil tops $100; trade risk rises
Oil climbed above $100 a barrel after the U.S. moved to blockade Iran, pushing market jitters around energy and shipping routes. At the same time, reports say President Trump threatened a 50% tariff on China over alleged military support for Iran and China rejected the threat, adding another layer of trade uncertainty. (reuters.com) (moneycontrol.com)
Oil jumped back above $100 a barrel after the United States said it would blockade Iranian ports and coastal waters starting Monday morning. (cnbc.com) United States Central Command said the blockade would begin at 10 a.m. Eastern on April 13 and would apply to ships entering or leaving Iranian ports on the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman. It also said vessels sailing to non-Iranian ports could still transit the Strait of Hormuz. (cnbc.com) By late Sunday, United States crude was up 8.4% at $104.69 a barrel after a failed round of weekend talks with Iran. Reuters, citing London Stock Exchange Group shipping data, reported tankers were already steering clear of Hormuz before the blockade took effect. (usnews.com) The waterway at the center of the move is one of the world’s main oil corridors. China and Pakistan said in March that the Strait of Hormuz carries about a fifth of global oil and gas supplies, which is why any threat to traffic there moves prices far beyond Iran. (marinelink.com) The market had briefly moved the other way last week. T. Rowe Price said signs of a United States-Iran ceasefire helped push oil lower and lifted stock indexes in the week ending April 10, before the latest breakdown reversed that mood. (troweprice.com) Trade risk rose at the same time. President Donald Trump said on April 9 that any country supplying military weapons to Iran would face a 50% United States tariff on all goods, with no exemptions. (cnbc.com) On April 13, CNBC reported Trump specifically threatened China with a 50% tariff after a report that Beijing was preparing an air-defense shipment to Iran. China’s foreign ministry called the allegations “groundless smears and malicious associations,” according to a Reuters report carried by MarineLink. (cnbc.com) (marinelink.com) Beijing also urged “calm and restraint by all sides” on April 13 and said normal navigation through Hormuz should be restored. Reuters reported that, before the war, most Iranian oil exports were shipped to China, the world’s largest crude importer. (al-monitor.com) That leaves traders watching two clocks at once: whether ships can keep moving through the Gulf and whether Washington turns a war threat into a broader trade fight with China. For now, the oil market is pricing in both risks. (reuters.com) (usnews.com)
