Canada's deficit, rising food banks

Canada’s economic anxiety is showing up in two places people actually feel — the federal books and the food-bank line. The latest numbers make the picture clearer, but not simpler. Ottawa’s final 2024-25 accounts were better than some midyear deficit fears suggested, yet still landed at a C$36.3 billion shortfall. At the same time, food-bank use stayed at record levels, which tells you the pressure on households did not ease in any meaningful way. ### Did the deficit actually get worse? Not in the final year-end tally. The government’s Annual Financial Report for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2025 showed a C$36.3 billion deficit, down from C$61.9 billion the year before and C$12.0 billion lower than the C$48.3 billion deficit projected in the 2024 fall update — several points, which helped feed the sense that Ottawa was slipping further off course. ### So why did it feel worse? Because households do not live in year-end accounting tables. They live in rent, groceries, and debt-service costs. Even in the improved final report, public debt charges rose and program spending kept climbing. That means the government is still carrying a large deficit in an environment where borrowing costs matter more than they did a few years ago. ### What are the food-bank numbers saying? They are saying this is no longer a narrow crisis. Food Banks Canada logged 2,059,636 visits in March 2024 alone — a record, up 6% from 2023 and nearly 90% above 2019. Its latest national findings say usage has now doubled since 2019 and is still rising. Separately, research from 2024. That is not a blip. That is a structural affordability problem. ### Is this just about unemployment? No — and that is the catch. Food-bank demand is rising even among people with jobs. Food Banks Canada says 19% of clients now report employment as their main source of income, up from 12% in 2019. Basically, work is not reliably covering housing and food anymore for a meaningful slice of the country. ### Where do pipelines fit into this? The “Canada can’t build” story is only partly true now. A lot of proposed oil pipelines from the last decade died — Energy East and Northern Gateway are the obvious examples. But Trans Mountain’s expansion did enter service in May 2024, and LNG Canada shipped its first cargo from Kitimat in June after years of delay and huge cost, while many others never did. ### Why doesn’t that calm people down? Because those wins do not instantly fix the cost-of-living squeeze. Trans Mountain expanded export capacity, but it also became a hugely expensive public project. LNG Canada is a milestone, but it is not a quick answer for grocery bills in Toronto or Halifax. Big energy infrastructure can help growth and trade over time. It does not erase near-term household stress. ### What is the real political problem here? It is the combination. A government can survive a sizable deficit if people feel life is getting easier. It can survive painful household data if there is a believable growth story. Canada has pieces of both stories, but not enough resolution. The books are still deep in the red, and the food-bank numbers are telling voters that the recovery is not reaching them. ### Bottom line? This story is not “Canada is broke,” and it is not “everything is fine.” It is that Ottawa’s fiscal picture improved on paper while everyday hardship stayed severe. That gap is why the mood still feels sour.