Energy Shock Deepens
The Gulf conflict has widened into a supply shock that’s now hitting Asia — fuel shortages, transport cost spikes and rationing are appearing across the region as efforts to plug the gap fall short. Economists warn the disruption is producing a synchronized hit to growth and prices and could trigger stagflation, while industry leaders say energy security pressures are already crowding out climate mitigation plans. (gulfbusiness.com) (bbc.com) (bloomberg.com 1) (bloomberg.com 2)
The Philippines declared a state of national energy emergency on March 24 and activated a whole-of-government “UPLIFT” response to ensure fuel, food and medical supplies amid tightening Gulf shipments. (pco.gov.ph) (pco.gov.ph) Bangladesh imposed daily fuel-sale limits — motorcycles 2 litres, private cars 10 litres, SUVs/microbuses 20–25 litres and larger buses/trucks up to 220 litres — after panic buying began in early March. (tbsnews.net) (tbsnews.net) China instructed major refiners to suspend new diesel and gasoline export contracts and seek cancellations of agreed shipments beginning in early March, cutting one of Asia’s alternative sources of refined fuel. (reuters.com) (marketscreener.com) Major carriers have added emergency conflict/war-risk surcharges — examples include Hapag‑Lloyd’s $1,500 per TEU and $3,500 for reefers and CMA CGM’s $2,000–$3,000 range per container — while many routes are being rerouted via the Cape of Good Hope. (lloydslist.com) (lloydslist.com) Leading marine insurers and P&I clubs — including Gard, Skuld, NorthStandard and the London P&I Club — announced cancellations of war‑risk cover for Iranian and adjacent waters effective in early March, prompting dozens of tankers to stack and insurers to seek buy‑back terms. (bloomberg.com) (bloomberg.com) Freight-rate benchmarks have moved sharply: Drewry’s World Container Index climbed above $1,900–$2,100 per 40ft in mid‑March while Drewry’s intra‑Asia index rose about 5% to roughly $646 per 40ft, and some carriers pushed China‑US rates up by about $600 per container in late‑March. (maritimenews.com) (maritimenews.com) Brent crude has traded above $100 a barrel through mid‑March, briefly spiking earlier in the month, and business surveys cited by Bloomberg show PMI declines across regions that economists warn amount to a synchronized shock to growth and prices — forecasts include warnings that UK growth could halve and IMF officials saying the war will test global economic resilience. (bloomberg.com) (bloomberg.com) Senior industry figures say the scramble for secure liquid fuels is already delaying low‑carbon investments: a top BHP executive warned energy shocks will slow global climate action, while the miner has previously shelved major renewable projects — a concrete signal of capital being diverted toward near‑term security. (bloomberg.com) (bloomberg.com)
