Toronto down 24%
Greater Toronto home prices are about 24% below their 2022 peak, with analysts warning history suggests the correction may not be over and prior downturns took years to resolve. Transaction volumes remain muted and a prolonged drag in Toronto would materially affect national mortgage flows and credit risk. (canadianmortgagetrends.com)
TRREB’s February 2026 Market Watch shows the GTA average selling price at $1,008,968 and the MLS® HPI Composite benchmark down 7.9% year‑over‑year. (trreb.ca) TRREB recorded 3,868 GTA home sales in February and just 10,705 new listings, a 17.7% annual drop in fresh supply that kept active inventory from rising despite soft demand. (trreb.ca) The Bank of Canada held the overnight rate at 2.25% on March 18, 2026, citing heightened volatility in global energy prices linked to the war in the Middle East as a key risk to the outlook. (bankofcanada.ca) Canada’s prime rate remains at 4.45% as a pricing floor for many lenders’ variable products, and the lowest advertised five‑year variable deals are clustered in the mid‑3% range. (moneysense.ca) CMHC’s mortgage industry analysis shows roughly 1.15 million mortgages are scheduled to renew in 2026 and about 1.8 million renewals in total by end‑2026, creating concentrated refinancing flows for lenders. (cmhc-schl.gc.ca) Bank of Canada staff analysis estimates a majority of fixed‑rate borrowers renewing in 2025–26 will face payment increases (average increases in the mid‑single to low‑double digits for many cohorts), amplifying potential listing and credit‑risk channels. (bankofcanada.ca) CMHC data flagged rising delinquency pressure in Ontario — delinquencies rose about 44% year‑over‑year and Toronto’s delinquency rate was reported near 0.24% in Q2 2025 — a metric lenders monitor as resale activity weakens. (cmhc-schl.gc.ca) Wholesale and retail pricing diverge: the lowest available five‑year fixed specials were around 3.94% as of March 18, 2026, while posted big‑bank five‑year fixed rates clustered near 6.09%, widening spread dynamics that affect lender margin and product strategy during the renewal wave. (ratehub.ca)
