India, Pakistan hold shaky ceasefire

The ceasefire is still holding. That is the good news. The bad news is that almost everything underneath it still looks brittle. India and Pakistan stepped back from the brink on May 10, 2025, after four days of strikes, drones, artillery fire and a serious fear that two nuclear-armed states were sliding into a wider war. One year later, the shooting has mostly stopped, but the dispute did not get solved. It just moved into other arenas — water, diplomacy, military signaling and domestic politics. ### What is being marked this week? Pakistan spent the week commemorating what it calls the “Marka-i-Haq” anniversary — basically its framing of the 2025 clash as a successful act of national defense. Islamabad police issued traffic warnings and prepared for road closures and tighter security around anniversary events in the capital. At the same time, Pakistan’s military and civilian officials used the anniversary to stress that they remain ready for any new Indian strike. (state.gov) ### What started the 2025 crisis? The immediate trigger was the April 22, 2025 attack in Pahalgam in Indian-administered Jammu and Kashmir, which killed at least 26 people. India blamed Pakistan-backed militants. Pakistan denied involvement and called for an independent investigation. India then launched strikes on May 7, 2025, and Pakistan responded, pushing both countries into a fast, dangerous cycle of retaliation. (arabnews.pk) ### How did the fighting stop? The ceasefire came on May 10, 2025, after direct military contact and outside pressure, with Washington publicly announcing that both governments had agreed to stop fighting and begin broader talks at a neutral site. The UN welcomed the halt, but even then there were reports of early skirmishes and drone incidents after the announcement. So the truce worked — but it looked shaky almost immediately. (news.un.org) ### If the ceasefire holds, why does this still feel dangerous? Because a ceasefire is not the same thing as a settlement. Dawn’s anniversary analysis puts it pretty bluntly: no war, but no peace either. The political process that might have turned the truce into something sturdier never really materialized, and analysts are warning that the next crisis could be even harder for outside powers to contain. (state.gov) ### Why is water suddenly central? The Indus Waters Treaty has become the clearest sign that India wants pressure without full-scale war. New Delhi said again this week that the 1960 treaty will stay in abeyance until Pakistan “credibly and irrevocably” ends support for cross-border terrorism. That matters because the treaty governs the Indus river system and gives Pakistan access to most of that water network. In other words, the conflict has shifted from bombs to leverage. (dawn.com) ### What is Pakistan doing in response? Pakistan is pushing the issue outward — into diplomacy, international forums and narrative-building. It keeps calling for dialogue, but “meaningful” dialogue on all issues, not just terrorism. That sounds procedural, but it is really a fight over the agenda: India wants terrorism front and center, while Pakistan wants the broader dispute, including Kashmir and water, back on the table. (tribuneindia.com) ### So what is the real state of the ceasefire? Stable enough to prevent daily headlines. Fragile enough that nobody should confuse it with reconciliation. The armies are deterred for now, but the relationship is still organized around mistrust, punishment and readiness for the next round. ### Bottom line The line of control is quieter than it was a year ago. But the peace is thin. (newindianexpress.com) India and Pakistan did not build a bridge after the 2025 crisis — they built a pause. (state.gov) (dawn.com)