Thai Rice Exports Forecast to Hit Five-Year Low
Thailand's rice exports are projected to fall to a five-year low of 7.03 million tonnes in 2026, a second consecutive annual decline. The Thai Rice Exporters Association cites a strong baht, which is eroding price competitiveness against rivals like Vietnam and India, as the primary driver. Exporters warn of a potential 15-20% loss of the U.S. market due to rising costs and possible tariffs.
India's full return to the global market, lifting its final export ban on 100% broken rice in early 2025, has already triggered a sharp drop in global prices. Following India's policy shift, the price for 5% broken rice from both Vietnam and Thailand plummeted by 38-45% between late 2024 and early 2025. Vietnam has been aggressively securing future sales, surpassing Thailand to become the world's second-largest rice exporter in the first half of 2025. It recently signed multi-year agreements to guarantee supply to the Philippines and a first-of-its-kind memorandum to ensure unimpeded rice trade with Singapore, locking in key regional buyers. Meanwhile, demand in high-value markets is shifting. The European rice market is projected to reach USD 9.05 billion by 2031, with consumer preference for premium aromatic varieties like Jasmine and Basmati driving growth. The global Jasmine rice market alone is forecast to hit USD 8.5 billion by 2029, with prices for top grades reaching over USD 1,150 per metric ton in 2024. Accessing this premium European market requires adherence to strict standards. EU regulations mandate Maximum Residue Levels (MRLs) for pesticides, and many importers now require suppliers to hold a Global Food Safety Initiative (GFSI) recognized certificate. Full supply chain traceability and sustainability certifications, such as those from the Sustainable Rice Platform (SRP), are also becoming critical for market entry. Trade agreements are reshaping market access in Asia as well. A recent U.S.-Japan deal is set to significantly increase Japan's imports of American rice under its tariff-free quota, potentially slashing Thailand's historical 300,000-tonne allocation to less than 100,000 tonnes. The Bank of Thailand has responded to the strong baht and export pressures with multiple interest rate cuts, bringing the policy rate to a low of 1.00% in February 2026. Despite this, the baht has appreciated 8.74% against the US dollar over the past year, further challenging price competitiveness.
